Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader
PM $36.1K
1
35
Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader
PM $36.1K
1
35
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Joe Burrow at 23.5%.
Polymarket
- Joe Burrow23.5%
- Jared Goff20.5%
- Brock Purdy19%
- Matthew Stafford13%
- Trevor Lawrence11.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $36.1K
Reported volume · provider units
35
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve in favor of the player that finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the tied player with more passing yards during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve in favor of the player with a higher completion percentage during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to “Other”. If the 2026-27 NFL season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available NFL statistics for completed games. If the 2026-27 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event is "Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader." Each market asks whether one named quarterback will finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns [1]. The rules break ties first by passing yards, then by completion percentage, and resolve to "Other" if a tie persists [1]. The rules also say the market resolves to "Other" if the regular season is cancelled, if it is postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if it is unclear who led the league in passing touchdowns [1]. The stated resolution source is official NFL information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T07:50:44.273Z [1]. These are snapshot values, not current quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities.
The sample covers 12 of 35 markets in this provider event, so it is partial [1]. The included markets were selected by highest Yes price, so omitted players are not shown to have lower prices. Among the included markets, Yes prices range from 0.1975 for Brock Purdy to 0.0345 for JJ McCarthy and Jaxson Dart, which is the lowest included value [1]. Joe Burrow (0.195), Jared Goff (0.185), and Matthew Stafford (0.17) sit close to Purdy in the sample [1].
The listed end times differ. Five included markets (Mahomes, Lawrence, Allen, Cousins, and Dart) show an end time of 2027-01-12T23:59:00.000Z, while the others show 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. These are provider metadata, so the reader should check the stated rules rather than treat them as a single resolution moment.
Volume is not included in this excerpt, so nothing here can be said about liquidity or trader participation.
What remains uncertain
The sample excludes 23 markets, and the "Other" outcome's price is not in the supplied data. The snapshot is a single observation and may not reflect later prices. The evidence does not explain any price movement. Because the contracts share an event but carry different listed end times and resolution details, a price gap between two players should not be read as an arbitrage opportunity without further review.
References
- Polymarket: Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T06:00:06.106Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
A passing touchdown is a recorded statistic in football games. A touchdown pass occurs when a pass results in a touchdown, either by being caught and advanced into the end zone or caught within its boundaries [2]. A forward pass must move forward upon leaving the passer's hands to count as a passing play [3]. The Polymarket event Pro Football: 2026-27 Passing Touchdowns Leader is a contract about which player finishes the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing touchdowns [1]. Each individual market in the event asks whether a named player will finish with the most passing touchdowns, with Yes and No outcomes [1]. The contract's tie-break rules are specific. If players tie for the most passing touchdowns, the market resolves in favor of the tied player with more passing yards during the regular season. If that still does not separate them, the tie-break is the higher completion percentage. If a tie still persists, the market resolves to Other [1]. The rules also address disruption. If the season concludes early, is shortened, or is truncated for any reason, the outcome is determined using available NFL statistics for completed games [1]. If the regular season is cancelled, is postponed after January 26, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe, the market resolves to Other [1]. The resolution source is official information from the NFL, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Historical Context
The NFL did not begin keeping official records until the 1932 season [3]. The league's record books also recognize passing touchdown leaders of the American Football League, which operated from 1960 to 1969 before merging with the NFL in 1970 [2][3]. In 2025, the league announced that it would acknowledge records from the All-American Football Conference, which operated from 1946 to 1949 before its teams merged into the NFL in 1950 [2]. Sources describe three of its teams as merging into the NFL [3].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single outcome: which player records the most passing touchdowns across one NFL regular season, as reported under the NFL's official information [1]. Because the market is tied to a full season's statistics, its resolution depends on the final regular-season totals and the tie-break rules rather than on any single game [1]. The market's prices are snapshots of trading at a given time. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities of any player leading the league. Trading prices can reflect many things, and this explanation does not attribute any movement to a particular cause. The sample shown on this page is partial. The provider event includes 35 markets, and 12 are included here, selected by ordering the Yes price from highest to lowest [1]. Omitted markets should not be assumed to have lower prices, and the included rankings should not be combined with markets from other events or providers.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What happens if two players finish tied for the most passing touchdowns?
The market resolves in favor of the tied player with more passing yards during the regular season. If the tie persists, the player with the higher completion percentage is used. If it still persists, the market resolves to Other [1].
What happens if the season is shortened or ends early?
The outcome is determined using available NFL statistics for completed games [1].
When does the market resolve to Other?
It resolves to Other if the regular season is cancelled, is postponed after January 26, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, or if it is unclear which player led the NFL in passing touchdowns within that timeframe [1].
Where does the resolution information come from?
The resolution source is official information from the NFL, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does a price show the chance that a player will lead the league?
Prices in this sample are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They reflect market trading at the observed time and should not be read as confirmed likelihoods.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.