AL MVP Winner? | PredictPedia

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Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

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Single-Platform Markets(43)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?	Kalshi	35%
Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?	Kalshi	16%
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?	Kalshi	14%
Will Gunnar Henderson win AL MVP?	Kalshi	9%
Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?	Kalshi	7%
Will Julio Rodríguez win AL MVP?	Kalshi	5%
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win AL MVP?	Kalshi	4%
Will Roman Anthony win AL MVP?	Kalshi	4%
Will José Ramírez win AL MVP?	Kalshi	4%
Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP?	Kalshi	3%
Will Cal Raleigh win AL MVP?	Kalshi	3%
Will Ben Rice win AL MVP?	Kalshi	3%
Will Wyatt Langford win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Pete Alonso win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Corey Seager win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tie/Co-Winners win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Zach Neto win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Yandy Diaz win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trevor Story win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Tarik Skubal win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Brent Rooker win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Steven Kwan win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Riley Greene win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Randy Arozarena win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Maikel García win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jacob Wilson win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jeremy Peña win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Josh Naylor win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jackson Holliday win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jarren Duran win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Junior Caminero win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jose Altuve win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Jo Adell win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will George Springer win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Garrett Crochet win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Daulton Varsho win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Colson Montgomery win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Carlos Correa win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Cody Bellinger win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Byron Buxton win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Adley Rutschman win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%
Will Alejandro Kirk win AL MVP?	Kalshi	1%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** AL MVP Winner?
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2026 season

If X wins the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tie/Co-Winners wins the Pro Baseball American League MVP in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tie/Co-Winners win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Zach Neto win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Yandy Diaz win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Wyatt Langford win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trevor Story win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Tarik Skubal win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Brent Rooker win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Steven Kwan win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Riley Greene win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Randy Arozarena win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Roman Anthony win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Pete Alonso win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Maikel García win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Jacob Wilson win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Julio Rodríguez win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will José Ramírez win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Jeremy Peña win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Josh Naylor win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Jackson Holliday win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Jarren Duran win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Junior Caminero win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Jose Altuve win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Jo Adell win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will George Springer win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Gunnar Henderson win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Garrett Crochet win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Daulton Varsho win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Corey Seager win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Cal Raleigh win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Colson Montgomery win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Carlos Correa win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Cody Bellinger win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Ben Rice win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Byron Buxton win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Adley Rutschman win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Alejandro Kirk win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

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Events (1)

AL MVP Winner?

Markets (43)

Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?

Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?

Will Gunnar Henderson win AL MVP?

Will Gunnar Henderson win AL MVP?

Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?

Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?

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Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

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AL MVP Winner?

Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?

Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?

Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?

Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?

Will Gunnar Henderson win AL MVP?

Will Gunnar Henderson win AL MVP?

Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?

Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?

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