Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a set of five Polymarket contracts asking whether LI.FI will launch a token by a specified deadline. Each contract resolves "Yes" if LI.FI officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date in its title, and "No" otherwise [1]. The rules say that only an official token launched by LI.FI qualifies. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens do not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable, and announcements alone do not qualify [1]. The primary resolution source is information from LI.FI's official X account, with a consensus of credible reporting also used [1].

The contracts differ only in their deadlines. The listed end times are provider fields in UTC, and they fall shortly after the stated ET deadline. For example, the December 31, 2026 contract lists an end time of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which matches 11:59 PM ET on December 31 [1]. A listed end time is not an announced event date, and it does not show that any launch has been scheduled.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. They are snapshots from that moment, not current or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities [1]. The Yes prices, by deadline, are:

• December 31, 2026: 0.0235
• March 31, 2027: 0.0395
• June 30, 2027: 0.10
• September 30, 2027: 0.125
• December 31, 2027: 0.275

Each contract's No price is the complement of its Yes price in the snapshot. Yes prices rise with the later deadlines, which is consistent with longer windows, but the snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is. Volume is not reported in this evidence, and it would not indicate liquidity or the number of traders even if it were.

The sample covers all five saved markets for this event, so it is complete for the saved provider event [1]. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome. Prices from different contracts should not be combined or averaged, because each one answers a different deadline question.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not include any LI.FI announcement, news reporting, or statement about a planned token. It also does not show how often similar contracts have matched outcomes. Because the snapshot was taken at a single past time, it cannot tell readers what the prices are now. Differences between contracts reflect different deadlines and should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without current, executable pricing and a full review of each contract's rules.

References

1. Polymarket: Will LI.FI launch a token by ___?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.