Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
PM $0
1
1
Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied contract is titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET" on Polymarket [1]. Its rule says it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns that stream "not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] The title gives Eastern Time, while the listed end time is 2026-10-15T16:40:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing this contract with others should check both the window and the price source, since wording differences change what is being measured.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:06:42.344Z [1]. The observation came about 27 minutes before the listed end time, and the retrieval came after it. These values describe the saved snapshot only and should not be read as current prices. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The saved status was "active" [1].
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the record does not flag a partial sample [1]. Because only these two outcomes were saved, the Up price sits slightly above the Down price within this snapshot. The evidence does not explain why the prices were at those levels.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not include a resolution outcome, so it does not show whether the contract resolved to Up or Down. Volume, liquidity, and the number of traders are also not in the evidence, and volume would not indicate any of them. Comparisons with contracts on other platforms, with different time windows, or with different price sources are not like-for-like. A difference in quoted prices between such contracts does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-duration crypto contract listed on Polymarket. Its title is Hyperliquid Up or Down for October 15, 12:35PM to 12:40PM ET, and the listed end time is 16:40 UTC, which is 12:40PM ET [1]. The contract is tied to the price of HYPE/USD, the asset pair for Hyperliquid, and it asks whether the price will finish the five-minute window higher or lower than where it began [1]. The settlement rule is based on a time-weighted average price rather than a single price at the end of the window. According to the contract rules, the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid across the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. This means a brief spike or dip near the end of the window does not decide the outcome by itself, because the average across the whole window is what counts. The resolution source is Chainlink. The rules name its HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, labeled as a 60-second stream, and state that the market concerns only that stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore look at that specific data feed, since prices on other exchanges or data sources are not the measure used. The sample captured for this entry includes one market, which is the full saved event: an Up outcome and a Down outcome. At the provider observation time, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a moment in time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. Trading volume is also not a measure of liquidity or of how many people took part.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Hyperliquid's price, as recorded by the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, across one five-minute window from 12:35PM to 12:40PM ET on October 15 [1]. Because it uses a time-weighted average and compares that average to the starting price, it reflects the overall movement across the window rather than a single moment. The contract's definition is narrow: only the named data stream counts, and the result depends on the specific comparison in its rules [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome mean in this contract?
The Up outcome resolves if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range, based on the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1].
What does the Down outcome mean?
The Down outcome applies when the condition for Up is not met, meaning the time-weighted average over the range is below the price at the beginning of the range [1].
Which data source decides the result?
The rules state that the resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When is the listed end time for this contract?
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T16:40:00Z, which corresponds to 12:40PM ET, the end of the stated window [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
