BNB Up or Down - October 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not count [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T06:25:00.000Z [1]. Readers should convert the ET window in the title to UTC themselves and confirm it matches that listed end time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T13:54:19.153Z [1]. It is not a live reading. The contract's listed end time falls after the retrieval time, so the market had not closed when the data was saved, but the snapshot cannot tell you its current state.
The sample contains one outcome. "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The sample also has no volume or liquidity figures, so it says nothing about depth or the number of participants.
Because the sample includes only this contract, there is no cross-platform comparison here. Any other BNB contract with different wording, a different window, or a different resolution source should be read on its own terms, and a price gap between such contracts would not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no news, trader counts, or information about how this market has performed historically. The provider status was recorded as active at retrieval [1], but the snapshot does not show whether that status has changed since. The actual outcome will depend on the Chainlink TWAP data during the specified window, which is not included in the supplied evidence.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term price contract listed on Polymarket for BNB, the asset that the platform labels BNB/USD. The contract covers a five-minute window from 2:20 AM to 2:25 AM ET on October 28, and asks whether the price moves up or down across that window [1]. The provider's rules say the contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB, as generated by Chainlink over the stated range, is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules link to [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns that specific Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair and not any other price source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore not assume that a quote on another exchange or a different data feed would decide the outcome. The saved provider record lists the event as active and gives an end time of 2026-10-28T06:25:00Z [1]. That end time is the contract's listed closing time. The record does not show a resolved outcome, so the result should be treated as unknown in this snapshot. The source record was observed at 2026-10-27T12:00:05Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T13:54:19Z [1]. Those times describe when the provider data was captured, not the time the contract settles.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of BNB's price over a single five-minute interval, using a time-weighted average rather than a single price at one moment [1]. Because the comparison is between the average over the window and the price at the window's start, the contract tests whether the average held at or above that starting level, not whether the price was higher at the end of the window [1]. The Chainlink data stream named in the rules defines the price used for settlement [1]. Anyone reading the displayed Up and Down prices should keep in mind that these are snapshots from a provider record and not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The Up outcome applies if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated five-minute range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, based on the Chainlink data stream [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The rules name the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
When does this contract close?
The saved provider record lists the end time as 2026-10-28T06:25:00Z [1].
Does the saved record show how the contract resolved?
No. The saved record reports the contract as active and does not include a resolved outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.