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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

"Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Name: "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office
End: 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.26K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

"Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Vol

$3.26K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.26K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.26K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?	Poly	36%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?	Poly	28%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?	Poly	26%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?	Poly	8%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?	Poly	7%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

36%

Top Probability

$3.26K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range b

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range b

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.59)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 35m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $494
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $391
  DATA: [Yes: 27.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 72.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 50m and 55m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $653
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $297
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $232
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 55m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture