Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with any other ether price market should check whether that market uses the same data source, averaging method, and time window. Wording differences like these can change what a result means even when the titles look similar.
The listed end time is "2026-10-25T06:45:00.000Z" [1]. The window in the title is given in ET, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should confirm the time zones before comparing windows.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from one observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They show where the saved market was priced at that moment, and nothing more.
The provider observation time is 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T12:47:57.756Z [1]. The contract is listed as active in the saved record [1]. Because the snapshot predates retrieval by about 48 minutes, it should not be read as a live price.
The sample covers one market for one event. The coverage record lists 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. The sample notes that the saved markets are complete for these events but do not establish that providers list every possible outcome. Since this is a two-outcome contract, the two prices are the full saved field. No volume or trader count was supplied, so no conclusion about liquidity or participation can be drawn.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do, and it contains no recent news about Ethereum or the Chainlink feed. It also does not show whether the price has changed since the observation. Close to 50 percent on both sides does not indicate anything about how the outcome will turn out.
The evidence does not establish how this contract's price compares with other ether contracts that use different rules or time windows. Price differences between contracts with different wording should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without checking those differences first.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T12:00:05.917Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-interval price contract on Polymarket about the ether (ETH) price. The event is titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 25, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET" and is categorized as Crypto [1]. Its rules say it will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average price over the window and the starting price, not between the price at the end of the window and the start. The contract specifies that the TWAP is generated by Chainlink and that the resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream for the ETH/USD pair, and not according to any other source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore look at that specific data feed rather than at exchange prices or other price trackers. The saved record lists a listed end time of 2026-10-25T06:45:00Z and a provider status of active [1]. The record was retrieved on 2026-10-24 at about 12:00 UTC, and the outcome prices in the snapshot were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These figures describe that retrieval only. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of either outcome. The contract had not reached its listed end time at the time of that record, so the outcome was not known from the saved material.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average ETH/USD price over a five minute window, as reported by a specified Chainlink TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the comparison uses an average over the window, a brief move near the end does not decide the result on its own. The rules direct resolution to one named data source, so the outcome depends on that feed and not on the broader market [1]. For a reader, the main points are the window in the title, the averaging method, the Chainlink data stream named as the resolution source, and the rule that the outcome is "Up" when the average is greater than or equal to the starting price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price data determines the result?
The rules name the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that the outcome will happen?
The record shows prices of 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" at the time it was retrieved [1]. These are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
When does this contract end?
The saved record gives a listed end time of 2026-10-25T06:45:00Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.