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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

TN-07 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-07 House Election Margin of Victory
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Markets

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Current odds

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As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 5-10% at 30.5%.

Polymarket

  1. Republican 5-10%30.5%
  2. Republican 10-15%24%
  3. Republican 15-20%21.5%
  4. Republican 20-25%6.5%
  5. Republican 0-5%5.3%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $15.5K

Reported volume ยท provider units

8

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The 2026 TN-07 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TN-07 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.

Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks how the margin of victory in the 2026 TN-07 House election will fall, using brackets. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Candidates are represented by the Democratic and Republican Party nominees, and independents do not count as options for either party [1].

Boundary wording matters. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. Tie-breaking and replacement-nominee rules also apply [1]. The rules say resolution follows "the official vote count once the count has been made official," and that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a deadline in the rules, not an announced event date.

Reading the snapshot

The saved data was observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z and retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:32:01.211Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not current quotes and are not executable prices.

The sample includes all 8 saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flagged [1]. Within the margin brackets, the Yes prices are: 5%-10% at 0.42, 10%-15% at 0.24, 30% or more at 0.2005, 15%-20% at 0.06, 0%-5% at 0.055, 25%-30% at 0.045, and 20%-25% at 0.035 [1]. The Democratic-win contract shows Yes at 0.0175 [1]. Those seven margin Yes prices sum to about 1.06, which is one reason to treat them as snapshot observations rather than calibrated probabilities.

The 0%-5% bracket is listed at 0.055, and the Democratic-win contract at 0.0175. These are separate contracts, so they should not be combined into one measure. The listed end time for every market is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].

What remains uncertain

The source says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The saved excerpt does not provide the election's final result, certification status, or any later price movement. The sample warning states that the providers do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1], so no conclusion should be drawn about any unlisted outcome.

References

  1. Polymarket: TN-07 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTC

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketPolitics
TN-05 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-05 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $18.8K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-05 House election by 9%-12%?Yes 23%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-05 House election by 3%-6%?Yes 21%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-05 House election by 12%-15%?Yes 20%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
TN-01 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-01 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $17.0K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 45%-50%?Yes 26.2%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 40%-45%?Yes 26.1%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-01 House election by 50%-55%?Yes 26%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
TN-03 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-03 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $14.1K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-03 House election by 30%-35%?Yes 24.7%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-03 House election by 25%-30%?Yes 24.5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-03 House election by 20%-25%?Yes 23.6%
+7 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
TN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-06 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $14.1K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 15%-20%?Yes 32%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 20%-25%?Yes 22.2%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 10%-15%?Yes 16.5%
+6 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
TN-02 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-02 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $13.3K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-02 House election by 20%-25%?Yes 31.5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-02 House election by 25%-30%?Yes 26.5%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-02 House election by 30%-35%?Yes 20%
+6 moreNext deadline Nov 4, 2026 UTC
PolymarketPolitics
TN-04 House Election Margin of Victory

TN-04 House Election Margin of Victory

PM $1.0K
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-04 House election by 5%-10%?Yes 39%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-04 House election by 25%-30%?Yes 38.2%
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-04 House election by 30%-35%?Yes 37.4%
+6 moreNext deadline Nov 3, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

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