This event has ended. Showing historical data.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?

Name: Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?
End: 2026-05-04T20:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$92.56

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?

Vol

$92.56

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $92.56

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $92.56

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on May 4?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on May 4?	Poly	66%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on May 4?	Poly	60%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on May 4?	Poly	51%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on May 4?	Poly	51%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on May 4?	Poly	50%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

66%

Top Probability

$92.56

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or othe

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Apple (AAPL) closes above ___ on May 4?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or othe

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple Inc. (AAPL) on May 4 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $93
* **Total Liquidity:** $235
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.39)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 50.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $265 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 60.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $275 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 65.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 on May 4?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance