Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
PM $15.0K · K 337.3K contracts
2
2
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
PM $15.0K · K 337.3K contracts
2
2
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.0K · K 337.3K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
Before 2029 If the 22nd Amendment has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: If this event occurs, the market will close and expire early. If this event occurs, the market will close and expire early.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is titled "Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?" and includes one market: "Will the 22nd Amendment be repealed or reinterpreted to let Presidents run for a third term before Jan 1, 2029" [1]. The rules say that if the 22nd Amendment "has been repealed by a subsequent Constitutional Amendment, or if the Supreme Court of the United States has ruled in an opinion or judgment that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the Presidency at least thrice under at least some circumstances, before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes" [1].
The event title and the market title describe the same topic in different words. The market title is narrower because it refers to the amendment being repealed or reinterpreted, and the rules add that a Supreme Court ruling must find the amendment permits election "at least thrice under at least some circumstances." Readers should rely on the resolution wording, not the headline.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z, and the saved record was retrieved at 2026-10-13T15:52:43.922Z [1]. These times describe when the data was captured, not live conditions at the moment you read this. The quoted prices were Yes 0.0775 and No 0.9225 at observation [1]. Because these are snapshot prices, they are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The listed end date in the market record is 2029-01-01T15:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close time, not an announced event date. The source's provider status line, however, states "Listed end time: not supplied," which conflicts with the market record. Readers should treat the end time as unconfirmed until the provider clarifies it.
The rules also include an early close condition. If the qualifying event occurs, the market closes early [1]. The excerpt wording is repetitive and may be truncated in the saved text.
Coverage is complete for this saved event: one market, all included, with no partial sample [1]. Because there is only one contract, there is no comparison with other outcomes or platforms in this snapshot.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, how many traders hold positions, or whether liquidity supports trading at these levels. Volume data is not supplied. The saved record does not establish whether the provider lists every possible outcome for this topic, and the sample warning says it does not [1]. Because the excerpt does not describe current events, this snapshot cannot tell you the present status of any amendment or court case. Readers should check the provider's live contract page and the resolution wording before drawing conclusions.
References
- Kalshi: Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia tracks a Kalshi contract asking whether the 22nd Amendment will be repealed or reinterpreted to let a president run for a third term before January 1, 2029. The Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prohibits any person being elected president more than twice [2]. The contract's title refers to Donald Trump, who was first elected president in 2016, lost the 2020 election, and was elected to a second nonconsecutive term in 2024 [2]. Because Trump is the person named in the title, the contract is tied to his eligibility, but its resolution conditions concern the constitutional rule rather than any individual statement [1]. The contract's rules set two paths to a Yes resolution. The first is that a subsequent constitutional amendment repeals the 22nd Amendment. The second is that the Supreme Court of the United States rules, in an opinion or judgment, that the 22nd Amendment permits individuals to be elected to the presidency at least three times under at least some circumstances. Either path must occur before January 1, 2029 [1]. The rules also include an early close condition: if the event occurs, the market closes and expires early [1]. The provider's saved record lists one market in this event. Its Yes outcome was priced at 0.0775 and its No outcome at 0.9225 in the provider observation captured at 2026-10-13T15:00:05.608Z [1]. These figures are snapshots from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not a verified probability that the event will happen. The listed end date in the provider data is January 1, 2029 at 15:00 UTC, which is the closing boundary of the contract and not an announced event date [1]. The Wikipedia background pages describe public discussion of the issue. One summary says Trump has repeatedly raised the possibility of remaining in office for more than two terms, and that he has made inconsistent statements, sometimes claiming to be joking and sometimes using the idea to antagonize opponents [2]. Another page describes academic and political debate about whether Trump can be considered a fascist, a question separate from the eligibility rules this contract measures [3].
Historical Context
The Twenty-second Amendment prohibits any person being elected president more than twice [2]. Trump was first elected president in 2016, lost the 2020 election, and was elected to a second nonconsecutive term in 2024 [2]. Public discussion of a third term has followed, with Trump repeatedly raising the possibility and making inconsistent statements about it [2]. These are historical background points from the supplied Wikipedia summary and do not describe any current eligibility determination.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow legal question: whether the 22nd Amendment is repealed by a later constitutional amendment, or whether the Supreme Court rules that it permits election at least three times under some circumstances, before January 1, 2029 [1]. Because the resolution depends on formal legal events rather than political statements, public remarks about a third term are not, by themselves, the condition the rules describe [1][2]. The contract therefore reflects expectations about constitutional change or a judicial ruling within a fixed window, not a forecast of who will run for office.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a statement by Trump about a third term resolve this contract?
The rules name two conditions: a constitutional amendment repealing the 22nd Amendment, or a Supreme Court opinion or judgment saying the amendment permits election at least three times under some circumstances [1]. Background sources describe Trump's statements as inconsistent and sometimes framed as jokes [2], so remarks alone are not the stated resolution trigger [1].
What does the early close condition mean?
The rules state that if the qualifying event occurs, the market will close and expire early [1]. The early close applies only if one of the two qualifying conditions is met before January 1, 2029 [1].
Is the January 1, 2029 date an expected event date?
No. January 1, 2029 is the deadline in the contract rules and the listed end date in the provider data [1]. It marks when the window for the qualifying events closes, not a scheduled event [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
