New York's 21st District margin of victory
K 197.37 contracts
1
4
New York's 21st District margin of victory
K 197.37 contracts
1
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Gendebien, 1+ pts at 32.5%.
Kalshi
- Gendebien, 1+ pts32.5%
- Gendebien, 3+ pts24%
- Gendebien, 6+ pts12.3%
- Gendebien, 9+ pts5.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 197.37 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
New York's 21st District If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 21st District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the Republican Party's margin of victory in New York's 21st District U.S. House election reaches a set threshold. Under the rules, a contract resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins by X percentage points or more. The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party finishing immediately behind it. If the Republican Party loses, the margin is negative, so a Yes outcome would require a Republican win [1]. The rules also state that no rounding is applied and that the market will close early if certified results are published [1].
The saved event includes nine threshold contracts, from at least 1 point to at least 24 points. The provider's status is listed as active [1]. The market records show a close date of November 3, 2027 [1]. The excerpt, however, says "Listed end time: not supplied," so this date should be treated as a provider field to verify rather than a confirmed close time or a resolution date.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 00:38:14.917Z on the same day [1]. These are prices from that moment, not current or executable quotes.
The Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The quoted values are 0.58 for at least 1 point, 0.47 for at least 3 points, 0.30 for at least 6 points, 0.18 for at least 9 points, 0.084 for at least 12 points, 0.045 for at least 15 points, 0.034 for at least 18 points, 0.030 for at least 21 points, and 0.026 for at least 24 points [1]. Each row is a separate contract with its own threshold, so the prices describe different questions and should not be compared as if they were alternative bets on one outcome. A difference between two thresholds reflects the different contract definitions, not an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence covers only this one provider event, and all nine saved markets are included, so this is a complete sample of the saved event. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. No other platform's wording or prices are supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not report trader counts, volume, or liquidity. It also does not show how the contract will resolve, since the evidence contains no certified results. The listed close date conflicts with the rules' statement that no end time was supplied, so the close timing remains unresolved.
References
- Kalshi: New York's 21st District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a threshold market on the margin of victory for Republicans in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in New York's 21st District. Under the contract rules, it resolves to Yes if the Republican margin meets or exceeds a stated number of percentage points [1]. The margin is calculated as the Republican vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if Republicans win, or minus the percentage of the candidate or party that finishes first if Republicans lose [1]. A negative margin therefore means Republicans lost, and the contract rules state that a tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. The rules specify how boundaries are handled. Each margin range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and no rounding is applied to the calculated margin [1]. The rules give an example in which a margin of exactly 6 percentage points falls in the 6 to 7 point range, while 5.99999 percentage points falls in the 5 to 6 point range [1]. Votes attributable to the same underlying party or candidate are summed if the Republican Party runs under several labels or appears more than once on the ballot [1]. The market set saved for this event contains nine contracts, each asking whether the margin will be at least a different threshold, ranging from 1 to 24 percentage points in 3-point steps [1]. Each contract is a separate yes or no question about the same election, so the thresholds are related but are not independent bets on one outcome. The saved sample includes all markets recorded for this event, and the provider notes that this does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
Historical Context
The Wikipedia background entry describes New York's 21st congressional district as a U.S. House district represented by Republican Elise Stefanik [2]. It reports that on November 11, 2024, President Donald Trump announced his intention to nominate Stefanik as United States Ambassador to the United Nations, and that he withdrew the nomination on March 27, 2025 [2]. The entry also states that on December 19, 2025, Stefanik announced she would not seek re-election to the House [2]. These are historical events recorded in a background source retrieved on October 29, 2026, and they are not a present-day update on the race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively Republicans are expected to win this particular House race, using the margin in percentage points rather than only who wins [1]. Because the threshold markets are stacked, a higher threshold asks for a larger Republican margin, so the set of contracts shows how the margin is distributed across several cut points [1]. The contract also closes early if certified election results are published, which means the official result, not a news report, controls the outcome [1]. For uncontested races, the rules set the margin at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw-vote contracts [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes result require?
A Yes result requires the Republican margin of victory to be at or above the threshold in the specific contract. The margin is the Republican vote percentage minus the percentage of the runner-up, using no rounding [1].
How is a tie handled?
If the Republican Party ties for first place, the contract rules set the margin at 0 [1].
What happens if Republicans lose?
If the Republican Party loses, the margin is negative and is calculated against the candidate or party that finishes first [1].
What happens in an uncontested race?
For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points, or the total number of votes cast for raw-vote contracts [1].
When does this contract close?
The contract closes and expires early if certified election results are published [1]. The market data lists an end date of November 3, 2027, but the provider excerpt says the listed end time was not supplied, and that date is a field in the contract data rather than an announced event date [1].
Does a contract price show the probability of an outcome?
A price in this dataset is a snapshot from the provider at a recorded time, not an executable quote or a verified probability [1]. Differences between contracts on the same event should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without separate verification.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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