RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.4K
1
10
RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.4K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 40-45% at 43%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 40-45%43%
- Democrat 30-35%27%
- Democrat 35-40%14.5%
- Democrat 25-30%13.5%
- Democrat 45-50%8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $14.4K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 RI-01 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 RI-01 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event, "RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory," contains separate contracts on the gap between the top two candidates. The rules define margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Each bracket contract asks whether the Democratic Party candidate wins by a given range, and a separate contract asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins [1].
The wording matters for interpretation. Independent candidates do not count as either party's option [1]. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties and the official-count timing have their own rules, and the contract says the market resolves to "Other" if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. That date is a backstop in the contract rules, not an announced event date.
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules also state the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1], which is a rules statement and should not be read as a confirmed schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06Z, and the data was retrieved at 2026-10-16T00:09:50Z. These are times of this snapshot only, not live quotes. Prices are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample includes all 10 saved markets for this event, with no partial sample flag. The sample warning still applies: it does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome. The highest Yes price is 0.3 for the 35% to 40% bracket, followed by 0.285 for 40% to 45% and 0.235 for 30% to 35% [1]. The Republican contract shows 0.0015 Yes [1].
Because each Yes price belongs to a different contract, the values should not be averaged or summed into one distribution. Their total is not a verified probability, and differences between contracts are not, by themselves, an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is where it is, how many traders hold these positions, or what news has affected them. Volume is not included in the interpretation because it does not establish liquidity or trader count. The evidence also does not show how the market has performed historically.
Readers should check the contract text, the listed close time, and the official certification process before drawing conclusions about how a given bracket will resolve.
References
- Polymarket: RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
PredictPedia tracks a Polymarket event titled "RI-01 House Election Margin of Victory" for the 2026 House election in Rhode Island's 1st district. The contract does not ask who will win. It asks how large the winning margin will be, measured in percentage points between the top two candidates. The provider describes the 2026 RI-01 House election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That date is the expected election day stated in the contract, not a confirmed result or a resolution date. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes won by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the calculation uses valid votes, the margin is a share of valid ballots rather than a raw vote difference. The contract is organized as a set of brackets. Democratic-winning brackets run from 0% to 10% up to 50% or more, and the event also includes a contract on whether the Republican Party candidate wins [1]. For a margin that falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The saved event lists ten markets. The coverage record shows all ten were included, with no partial sample, and the provider's event listing shows the event as active [1]. Each market shows a Yes price and a No price. These are snapshot prices from the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the displayed volume does not indicate liquidity or the number of traders.
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in a specific race. A Democratic-winning bracket resolves on the gap between the top two candidates' valid-vote shares, so it reflects both who wins and by how much. The Republican-win contract instead isolates the party outcome [1]. Because the bracket rules rely on the official certified count, the contract ties its settlement to certification rather than to early or unofficial reporting. The provider states that the market will resolve based on the official vote count once it has been made official [1]. Traders reading the prices should keep in mind that a snapshot reflects a moment in time and that the contract's rules, not the price, determine settlement.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
When does this market resolve?
The contract states that it resolves based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time in the provider data is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, but the rules tie resolution to certification rather than to that timestamp [1].
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count?
No. The contract states that candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and that independent candidates do not represent either option [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
The contract says the name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
How are ties handled?
If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. A tie between a listed and an unlisted candidate resolves to the lowest bracket for the listed candidate. A tie between two or more unlisted candidates resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a recount affect resolution?
Yes. If a recount is initiated before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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