Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market asks whether a Chainlink time-weighted average price (TWAP) for Hyperliquid will finish at or above the starting price of the window named in its title, "Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET" [1]. According to the source excerpt, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the excerpt says the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T21:25:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z and retrieved at 2026-11-02T05:42:35.597Z [1]. The retrieval time is not the observation time, so these prices describe the earlier observation and should not be read as current quotes. The quoted prices were Up 0.505 and Down 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 at the observation time.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because nothing was omitted from this saved event, no comparison with a missing outcome is possible. The sample warning separately notes that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome [1]. That is a limit on the overall field, not evidence that this event is incomplete.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show prices after the observation time, the TWAP value, the starting price of the window, or the resolved outcome. It also contains no trader counts, news, or explanation for the quoted levels.
Readers comparing this contract with others should check wording and timing. The title uses Eastern time, while the listed end time is given in UTC. Other platforms may use different sources, windows, or close times, so their prices should not be placed side by side without matching those terms. No other platform data is supplied here, so no cross-platform comparison is made.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - November 2, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T03:00:05.865Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price market on Hyperliquid, the asset identified in its title as HYPE/USD. It asks whether the price of Hyperliquid will finish a set time range at or above where that range began. The contract is listed in the Crypto category on Polymarket and covers the window from 4:20 PM to 4:25 PM ET on November 2 [1]. The provider's rules state that the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The provider's listed end time is 2026-11-02T21:25:00Z [1]. The rules are specific about the data used. Resolution relies on the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, a 60-second time-weighted average stream, and not on other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the outcome depends on that particular data feed rather than on whichever exchange price a reader might check elsewhere. The saved market snapshot was observed at 2026-11-02T03:00:05Z, and the provider status was recorded as active at that time [1]. In that snapshot, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome. The sample includes both outcomes of this single binary market, so no outcome was omitted.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Hyperliquid's price over a five-minute window, judged by a time-weighted average rather than a single trade. Because the comparison is between the average over the window and the price at the window's start, the result reflects movement across the interval rather than the closing price alone [1]. Because the resolution is tied to one named Chainlink data stream, a participant needs to understand that feed's definition to interpret the outcome correctly [1]. The contract is therefore a narrow, rule-defined question about a single data series, not a general forecast about Hyperliquid.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Hyperliquid over the 4:20 PM to 4:25 PM ET range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which price data is used for resolution?
Resolution uses the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources and spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Do the listed prices show how likely each outcome is?
The saved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time of 2026-11-02T03:00:05Z [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a forecast of the result [1].
When does this contract end?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-11-02T21:25:00Z [1]. This is a contract rule, and it does not describe any separate announced event.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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