Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
PM $18.06
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1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
PM $18.06
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $18.06
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-15T19:40:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time, not a record of how the contract resolved. The supplied evidence does not show a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot lists Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The provider observation time was 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:04:33.149Z [1]. The prices therefore describe conditions at the observation time, not necessarily conditions at the time you read this. The status recorded at observation was active [1].
The sample covers one market from one platform, Polymarket. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The saved record states that all markets for this event are included, but that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. Because only one platform and one contract appear, no cross-platform comparison is possible here. Volume is not supplied, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, the TWAP during the window, or the final resolution. It also does not explain why the quoted prices sit where they do. Prices may have changed after the observation time. Contracts on other time windows, other data streams, or other platforms may use different terms, so a price difference between them should not be treated as an opportunity without matching the rules and checking current executable quotes.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-term Polymarket market on the price of Bitcoin against the US dollar, covering a five-minute window from 3:35PM to 3:40PM ET on October 15. It is one of the event-based contracts where the outcome is a direction rather than a specific price level. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The settlement reference is specific. The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream and not according to any other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading a Bitcoin price on an exchange during the window therefore cannot use that exchange's price to predict the result unless it matches the Chainlink TWAP calculation. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-10-15T19:40:00.000Z [1]. That date and time is the closing point written in the contract rules. It is not a separate announcement of an event. The provider's saved record shows the contract as active at the observation time [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average Bitcoin price in the stated window finishes at or above the starting price for that window, using the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP stream as the reference [1]. Because the comparison is between a time-weighted average and a starting price, the result depends on the calculation method and the price path during the window, not only on the price at the final moment [1]. Anyone reading the contract's price should keep in mind that a quoted price is a snapshot from the observation time and is not an executable quote or a verified probability.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink TWAP of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used for settlement?
The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, available at the stream listed in the contract rules [1]. The contract states that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-15T19:40:00.000Z [1]. This is the date and time written in the contract rules.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
