BNB Up or Down - November 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - November 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 2, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "BNB Up or Down - November 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1].
The named resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules add that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-02T15:45:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing this contract with other BNB markets should check whether their wording names the same feed, window, and comparison price.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-02T12:09:20.488Z [1]. This describes a past snapshot, not a live quote.
The saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In this record, the two prices sum to 1.000, and the 0.010 difference reflects only this observation.
The sample contains one saved market from one Polymarket event, and the coverage record marks it as not partial [1]. Because no other contract is included, there is no comparison or ranking to draw from this sample. The evidence does not include volume, so it says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
Observation time, retrieval time, the listed end time, and actual resolution are separate facts. The listed end time falls after the retrieval time, so the record shows the market before that listed close. The evidence does not show whether the contract has closed or how it settled.
The evidence also does not explain why the prices stood where they did. A single snapshot cannot show movement, direction over time, or whether the price reflects forecasting skill.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - November 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 2, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration prediction contract on the BNB price, listed on Polymarket under the title "BNB Up or Down - November 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET." It belongs to the crypto category and asks whether BNB will move up or down over a five-minute window. The contract's rules define "Up" and "Down" by reference to a time-weighted average price rather than a single trade price. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is named in the rules as Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, using a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price shown by this Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A reader should therefore not assume that the contract reflects prices on a particular exchange, or the price shown on a general price website. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-02T15:45:00Z [1]. That is the time the provider lists for the contract's close. It is not a record of when the contract was resolved, and the supplied material does not show an outcome. The price snapshot in this article was observed at 2026-11-02T12:00:05Z and was retrieved shortly afterward, so it describes the market at that earlier point rather than the position at the time of reading.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average BNB/USD price over a five-minute window, as recorded by Chainlink's TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average across the window rather than a single moment, a brief spike or drop near the start or end does not decide the result on its own. The price of each outcome reflects the market's assessment of that comparison, but the supplied material does not establish how accurately prices reflect the eventual result, and a price snapshot is not an executable quote.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-02 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Up outcome require?
The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price feed decides the market?
The rules name Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, using a 60-second TWAP, as the resolution source, and state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Is the listed end time the same as the resolution time?
No. The provider lists the end time as 2026-11-02T15:45:00Z [1]. The supplied material does not show when or how the market was resolved, so the listed end time should not be read as a resolution record.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.