Solana Up or Down - October 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Solana Up or Down - October 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on Polymarket titled "Solana Up or Down - October 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET" [1]. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules specify that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-16T14:45:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's listed close time, not a record of when resolution occurred. Because the rules compare a window average with the starting price, a contract on another platform or with different wording could resolve differently even for the same asset and clock time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from a single observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they do not show the depth or spread available to a trader. The observation time was 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:01:31.327Z [1]. The prices therefore describe the market at the observation time, roughly two hours before retrieval, and should not be read as a live reading.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event, with no partial sample flag [1]. Because only one contract was saved, there is no other outcome to compare against and no cross-platform comparison to make. Volume data is not included in this snapshot, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity or how many participants are involved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit near even odds, and it contains no news or market commentary. It does not show whether the market has traded since the snapshot, what the price is now, or how the contract will settle. The source describes its status as "active" [1], but this record cannot confirm the status at any later time. Readers comparing this with contracts on other platforms should check each contract's exact wording, source, window, and close time before treating their prices as comparable.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract on the price of Solana (SOL) against US dollars, listed on Polymarket under the title "Solana Up or Down - October 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET" [1]. The contract covers a five-minute window. Its outcome depends on whether the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of SOL over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window. If it is, the contract resolves to "Up". Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is named in the contract rules as information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means that a move on another exchange or price feed would not decide the outcome by itself. The rules also list an end time of 2026-10-16T14:45:00.000Z, which is the close of the window named in the title [1]. The saved snapshot for this contract was observed at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z and retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:01:31.294Z. These are provider observation and source retrieval times, not the contract's closing time or its resolution. The provider reported the contract's status as active at the time of the snapshot [1]. The snapshot shows an "Up" price of 0.505 and a "Down" price of 0.495 [1]. These figures record what the provider reported at that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a short-term directional question about SOL/USD as recorded by one named data stream. Because it compares the TWAP over the window with the price at the window's beginning, the outcome depends on the average level of the price during the window relative to its starting point, rather than on the price at the close alone [1]. The rules specify the Chainlink TWAP data stream as the basis for resolution and exclude other sources and spot markets [1]. Readers comparing this contract with price charts from other venues should keep that distinction in mind.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether the contract resolves to Up or Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price source is used to resolve the contract?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market is about that Chainlink stream and not other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title gives the window as October 16, 10:40AM to 10:45AM ET, and the listed end time in the contract record is 2026-10-16T14:45:00.000Z [1].
Do the displayed prices show the likelihood of an Up or Down outcome?
The record shows an Up price of 0.505 and a Down price of 0.495 at the time of the snapshot [1]. These are provider-reported prices from that moment, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
