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GroupPOLYMARKET

Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?

Anduril vs Lockheed Martin - higher valuation on December 31?
Vol

PM $12.0K

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AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $12.0K

Reported volume · provider units

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Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC

About This Event

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for the private company is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anduril's valuation is equal to Lockheed Martin's public market capitalization at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketFinance
Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anduril's valuation hit __ by December 31?

PM $112.2K
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?Yes 45%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?Yes 23.5%
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Yes 11%
+4 moreNext deadline Jan 5, 2027 UTC
PolymarketFinance
Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?

PM $1.31M
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?Yes 84.5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes 21.5%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Yes 8%
+10 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketFinance
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

PM $5.87M
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Yes 87.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes 69.5%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes 61%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 5, 2027 UTC
PolymarketFinance
Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Stripe's valuation hit __ by December 31?

PM $104.9K
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by December 31?Yes 67%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?Yes 46%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?Yes 15%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 5, 2027 UTC
PolymarketFinance
Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will ByteDance's valuation hit __ by December 31?

PM $90.4K
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31?Yes 29.5%
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?Yes 20%
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?Yes 4%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 5, 2027 UTC
PolymarketFinance
Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Glean's valuation hit __ by December 31?

PM $62.1K
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?Yes 40.5%
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $4B by December 31?Yes 39.5%
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?Yes 37.5%
+7 moreNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

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