Solana Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET" [1]. Its rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream," not "any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T23:50:00.000Z [1]. Readers comparing this with a contract that uses a different averaging method, data source, or window should treat the rules as the controlling difference, since a similar title alone does not establish equivalence.
Reading the snapshot
The saved Polymarket record shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from a saved record. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The record was observed at 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T00:28:37.018Z [1]. Those timestamps describe when the data was captured. They do not show the price at the time you are reading this, and the status "active" is the status recorded at capture [1].
The sample is one market for this event. The coverage record lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract appears, no other outcome in this sample can be compared with these prices. No other platform's contract for this window is in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices sit where they do, how many traders hold either side, or how much volume or liquidity supports them. Volume is not a measure of liquidity or trader count, and the record does not say whether either price would fill at any size.
The outcome depends on Chainlink TWAP data for the stated window, and that data is not included in this record. The evidence therefore cannot establish whether the contract will resolve to "Up" or "Down."
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T00:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval price contract on Polymarket titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, Up and Down. It asks whether the price of Solana in a specific five-minute window will move in one direction or the other, relative to where the window began [1]. The resolution rule is based on a time-weighted average price (TWAP), not a single trade or spot quote. According to the market's rules, the contract resolves to Up if the TWAP of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The rules specify that the measurement uses the SOL/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, and that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1]. The market listed an end time of 2026-10-26T23:50:00.000Z [1]. That listed end time is the time recorded in the market data, and the contract title gives the window in Eastern Time. The contract's status at the time of the snapshot was recorded as active [1]. The status describes the state of the listing when it was retrieved. It does not confirm how the market will finish or that any outcome has occurred. The saved snapshot shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are prices as recorded in that snapshot. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of what Solana's price will do. The saved event contains only this one market, so the two outcomes shown represent the full saved listing.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average price of Solana, as published in one Chainlink data stream, is at or above its starting level for a five-minute window [1]. Because the outcome depends on a specific data stream and a specific averaging method, the contract can differ from markets that refer to other price feeds, exchanges or spot prices. The rules state that only the named Chainlink stream is used [1]. Readers should check the rules of any contract before relying on its outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves to Up or Down?
The contract resolves to Up if the TWAP of Solana over the stated time range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price data is used for resolution?
The rules name the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
Does the listed price show the chance that Solana will rise?
The recorded prices are snapshot values for the two outcomes. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed chance of either result [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The market listed an end time of 2026-10-26T23:50:00.000Z [1]. This is the recorded end time in the market data, and it is separate from the observation and retrieval times of the saved snapshot.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Same-question pairs
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