Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied contract, titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET," is listed on Polymarket [1]. Its rule states that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range" [1]. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with an Ethereum price on another exchange or index should expect that a different source could show a different direction.
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T16:50:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time for the contract window, not a record that resolution has occurred. The evidence does not include a resolution result.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T21:10:08.941Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation window only.
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495 [1]
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00, and the spread between them is small. The evidence does not show trade size, order book depth, or the number of participants, so no conclusion about liquidity or agreement is supported.
The sample covers one saved market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. That supports reporting this single contract's prices, but it does not establish a broader field of related contracts.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and it contains no news or market commentary. It also does not show whether the price has changed since the snapshot. The contract had not closed as of the retrieval time, so its outcome remains unknown from this evidence.
Other Ethereum contracts with different windows, sources, or closing times would not be directly comparable with this one, even if their prices differ. The provider notes that the saved records "do not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on Ether (ETH) listed on Polymarket. Its title, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET", names a five-minute window on October 28. The contract is categorized under crypto [1]. Its rules state that it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over the specified time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules say the reference is the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream, and they state that the market concerns that data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. At the observation time of 21:00 UTC on October 27, 2026, the saved snapshot showed the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The snapshot also does not show the current price. The listed end time in the provider data is 16:50 UTC on October 28, 2026, which matches 12:50 PM Eastern Time [1]. That is the end of the contract window, not a separate announced event. The contract depends on the price path inside a single short window. It does not ask whether Ether will rise over a longer period. A small move in either direction within those five minutes can determine the result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute window ends at or above the value at the start of that window [1]. Because the reference is an average over the window rather than a single instant, the outcome depends on the path of the price during the interval. The rules limit the reference to that specific data stream, so readers should not treat other exchange prices or spot quotes as the basis for resolution [1]. The contract's listed end time is part of its rules and does not announce a separate event [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, based on the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The rules name the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
When does the contract window end?
The provider data lists the end time as 2026-10-28T16:50:00.000Z, which corresponds to 12:50 PM Eastern Time on October 28 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.