Snapshot observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied rules come from a single official Kalshi event page [1]. The contracts are margin-of-victory thresholds for the Montana vs Eastern Washington college football game. The rules state: "If Montana wins by more than X points in the Montana vs Eastern Washington college football game originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes." Each listed threshold is a separate Yes/No contract, so a "Montana wins by over 2.5 points" contract and a "Montana wins by over 6.5 points" contract are different questions and should not be read as one distribution.

The rules also cover postponement. If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, the market stays open and resolves on the official final result. If it has not started within 48 hours, the market resolves to a fair price [1]. The excerpt says the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1].

Timing terms differ. The provider observed the saved prices at 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T15:38:06.090Z [1]. Those are the snapshot times, not the contract close or resolution. The market records list an end date of 2026-11-02T20:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt says the listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. The evidence does not resolve that difference.

Reading the snapshot

The saved sample contains 12 Kalshi markets, and the coverage record shows all 12 were included with no partial sample [1]. The Yes prices run from 0.70 for "Montana wins by over 2.5 points" down to 0.03 for "Eastern Washington wins by over 18.5 points." Read as snapshot prices, the Montana-side thresholds are higher than the Eastern Washington-side thresholds at the same margins, but these are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

Prices fall as the margin threshold rises on the Montana side, and the Eastern Washington side shows the mirror pattern. Within each contract, Yes and No prices sum to 1.00 in the saved data. No platform comparison is possible because this sample contains only Kalshi.

Volume is not included in the interpretation here. Nothing in the evidence explains why prices sit where they do.

What remains uncertain

The sample is complete for this saved Kalshi event, but the source warns that it "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Any margin not listed should not be assumed to have a particular price.

The snapshot is from a past observation time. The evidence does not show current prices, the game's current status, or whether it was postponed. The end-date discrepancy and the 48-hour postponement rule both affect how the contract would resolve, and the supplied evidence does not settle either question.

References

1. Kalshi: Montana vs Eastern Washington: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-31T09:00:05.941Z.