XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
PM $0
1
1
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract is titled "XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM to 10:50PM ET" and is listed in the Crypto category [1]. Under its rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns that stream "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The question is therefore whether a five-minute average meets or exceeds the starting price, not whether the price is higher at the window's close.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:50:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close, not evidence that a result has been determined. The supplied evidence contains no resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z, and the source record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:19:51.383Z [1]. These timestamps describe only this saved snapshot. The provider status was recorded as active at retrieval [1].
The saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices. They are not executable quotes and not verified probabilities. The small gap between them is a fact of this record, but the evidence does not explain it.
This sample includes one Polymarket market and no other platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record lists one market for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. All saved markets for the event are included, but the provider notes that this does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1].
The evidence does not include volume, trader counts, or depth, so it cannot show liquidity or how many people hold each view. It also does not explain any movement in XRP or in this contract's price. Readers who need the current status or eventual result should check the live provider page and the Chainlink data stream.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "XRP Up or Down - October 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of XRP over a specific five-minute window will finish at or above where that window started. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's XRP/USD TWAP data stream, with a 60-second TWAP configuration [1]. The rules state that only this Chainlink data stream governs the outcome, not other price sources or spot markets [1]. This matters because a trader could see a different XRP price on an exchange and still see the contract settle differently, since the contract references only the specified stream. The market is listed with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. In the saved snapshot, "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These figures are prices from a single observation at one moment, not executable quotes, and they do not represent a verified probability that XRP will rise. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T02:50:00Z, and the contract's status at the time of retrieval was active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of XRP's Chainlink-generated TWAP over a short window, comparing the average over that window with the price at its start [1]. Because the comparison uses an average rather than a single closing trade, the outcome depends on the path of the price throughout the window and not only its endpoint. The rules tie settlement to one named data stream, so the relevant question is what that specific feed records, not what XRP trades for elsewhere [1]. The displayed prices show how the market priced the two outcomes at one observation time, which is useful for understanding the contract's structure but not for judging what will happen.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
It resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is Chainlink's XRP/USD TWAP data stream. The contract states that other sources or spot markets are not the basis for resolution [1].
What does the time-weighted average price mean here?
The rules define the comparison using the time-weighted average price generated by Chainlink over the time range in the title, rather than a single price at one moment [1].
Do the listed prices show the likely outcome?
The saved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at one observation time [1]. They are snapshot prices rather than executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they do not indicate the likely result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
XRP Up or Down - October 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.