Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied Kalshi event asks whether the Nasdaq-100 index value on October 27, 2026 at 1pm EDT will be above a stated level. Each market in the sample uses a different threshold. The rules state that if the index value is above X at that time, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also say the market "will close on October 27, 2026" and "will expire at the sooner of the first release of the data, or one week after October 27, 2026" [1]. The evidence does not supply a listed end time for the event. The market records carry an end date of 2026-11-03T20:00:00.000Z [1]. That field differs from the close date in the rule text, and the evidence does not explain the difference, so readers should check the platform's rules before relying on either date.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z, and the record was retrieved at 09:14:16 UTC [1]. This is a snapshot taken before the 1pm EDT measurement time, not a live or executable quote.

The sample contains 12 of 400 markets from this event, so it is partial [1]. The included markets were selected by a rule that orders by Yes price, then volume. In this sample, every included market shows a Yes price of 0.995 and a No price of 0.005 [1]. The included strike levels run from 27609.99 to 27719.99 [1]. The evidence does not show the prices of the 388 omitted markets, so nothing can be concluded about them, including whether they are priced lower.

Because all 12 markets share the same prices, the sample does not show how prices vary across thresholds. The matching prices also do not show how many traders hold each view or how much liquidity exists. Volume is not liquidity, and the evidence contains no trader counts.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why these prices are where they are, and it contains no recent news about the index. It also does not show the index value at the time of the snapshot or at 1pm EDT. Whether any market resolves to Yes depends on the index value at the measurement time, which is not in the evidence. Differences in the rule text and the listed end date should be checked directly. Prices shown are not verified probabilities, and differences between contracts should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity.

References

1. Kalshi: Nasdaq-100 price on Oct 27, 2026 at 1pm EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T09:00:05.939Z.