OR-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $19.6K
1
10
OR-03 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $19.6K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 50-55% at 23%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 50-55%23%
- Democrat 55-60%22%
- Democrat 60-65%21.5%
- Democrat 45-50%18.5%
- Democrat 40-45%7.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $19.6K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 OR-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 OR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about the margin of victory in the 2026 OR-03 House election. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates, calculated from valid votes [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z, and the source says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. Resolution follows the official certified count. If a recount starts before certification, the market stays open until it is complete [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Bracket wording matters. A result that falls exactly on a boundary resolves to the higher margin bracket, and ties follow specific rules based on ballot-listed names [1]. The Republican contract is worded differently. It asks whether the Republican candidate wins the election, not which margin bracket applies [1].
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00:06 UTC and retrieved at 01:50:55 UTC. It shows 10 markets from one Polymarket event, all of which are included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The listed Yes prices for the Democratic margin brackets are: 0-25% at 0.003, 25-35% at 0.0055, 35-40% at 0.01, 40-45% at 0.1005, 45-50% at 0.215, 50-55% at 0.25, 55-60% at 0.215, 60-65% at 0.125, and 65% or more at 0.061 [1]. Those nine Yes prices sum to roughly 0.985, which is consistent with a single event's bracket structure, though these are prices, not verified probabilities [1].
The separate Republican win contract shows a Yes price of 0.0015 [1]. Because it uses different wording, it should not be merged with the bracket prices into a single ranking or average.
Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes. The volume data is not included in this summary, and a price does not indicate how many traders hold a view or how much liquidity exists.
What remains uncertain
The source does not explain why prices are where they are, and this summary does not infer that. The excerpt does not list recent news, polling, or other context, so no outside reasons are supplied.
The sample warning states that the saved markets do not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Readers should not treat the absence of a bracket as evidence that it has a particular price.
Finally, this record captures one observation. It does not show current prices at the time you read it. Check the provider for later data before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: OR-03 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This event is a Polymarket group on the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House election for Oregon's 3rd congressional district. The rules say the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The contracts do not ask who wins in the simple sense. They ask how large the gap is between the top two candidates, measured in percentage points of valid votes. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The group is organized into margin brackets for the Democratic Party candidate, such as 0%-25%, 25%-35%, 35%-40%, and 65% or more, along with a separate contract on whether the Republican Party candidate wins [1]. Only candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties count as the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The rules include several edge cases. If a reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the tie-breaking rules depend on whether the tied candidates are listed in the contract and use ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order [1]. Resolution is based on the official vote count once it has been made official, and a recount initiated before certification keeps the market open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures competitiveness in a specific race rather than overall control of the House. Because each bracket pays out based on a defined percentage gap, traders are effectively stating a view about how decisively the top two candidates will finish. The rules specify a primary resolution source: the official results of the 2026 OR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Understanding these definitions matters more than the bracket labels, because a small difference in how votes are counted or how a boundary is handled can determine which bracket resolves [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
Do independent candidates count in these contracts?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party, and the Democratic and Republican options refer only to candidates nominated by those parties [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
When does the market resolve to Other?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
What source determines the final result?
The primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 OR-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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