Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Game Spread
K 0 contracts
1
3
Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Game Spread
K 0 contracts
1
3
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 0 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
3
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 18, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh (Oct 18) If the game differential in favor of Michael Mmoh across the full match is above X games in the Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Lyon Round Of 16, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh professional tennis match in the 2026 ATP Lyon Round Of 16. If the match does not occur, signaled by a ball being played, due to a player injury, walkover, forfeiture, or any other cancellation, all before the match starts, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. If this match is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks. If a retirement occurs, all markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed will resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled will resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after the event occurs.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved Kalshi event covers the Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh match in the 2026 ATP Lyon Round Of 16 [1]. Each contract asks about the game differential across the full match. One market resolves Yes if Michael Mmoh wins at least 1.5 more games than Jan Kumstat, another resolves Yes if Jan Kumstat wins at least 1.5 more games than Michael Mmoh, and a third asks whether Michael Mmoh wins at least 4.5 more games than Jan Kumstat [1]. The rules say that if the match is cancelled before it starts, the market resolves to a fair price under the rules, and that if it is postponed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match finishes, within two weeks [1].
Close timing needs care. The market data lists an end date of 2026-11-01T12:30:00.000Z for all three contracts, but the source excerpt states that the listed end time was not supplied and that the market closes after the event occurs [1]. The end date is a provider field, not an announced match date, and it does not confirm when play will happen.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T03:30:52.728Z [1]. These prices describe that saved moment only and may have changed since then. The reported Yes prices were 0.445 for Michael Mmoh by at least 1.5 games, 0.44 for Jan Kumstat by at least 1.5 games, and 0.245 for Michael Mmoh by at least 4.5 games [1].
These are three different questions with different thresholds, so they should not be averaged or treated as a single field. The two 1.5-game contracts point in opposite directions, but their prices are not a matched pair, and a gap between them does not indicate an arbitrage opportunity. The snapshot also does not show executable bid or ask quotes.
What remains uncertain
All three saved markets for this event are included, and the coverage record marks the sample as complete for that event [1]. The source still warns that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The snapshot does not show trading volume, the number of participants, or the reasons for the prices. It also does not reveal the match status after the observation time, and the source does not state a final result.
References
- Kalshi: Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Game Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a Kalshi game spread contract for the professional tennis match between Jan Kumstat and Michael Mmoh, listed in the 2026 ATP Lyon Round Of 16 [1]. The event page describes the contract as resolving on the game differential in the full match. For a Yes outcome on the Mmoh contract, Mmoh must win by more than a stated number of games over Kumstat across the whole match [1]. The saved event contains three markets that use different thresholds. One asks whether Mmoh wins at least 1.5 more games than Kumstat, another asks whether Kumstat wins at least 1.5 more games than Mmoh, and a third asks whether Mmoh wins at least 4.5 more games than Kumstat [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no contract, so the three should be read on their own terms rather than as parts of one ranking. The rules also cover events that prevent a normal finish. If the match does not take place because of an injury, walkover, forfeiture, or another cancellation before play starts, the market resolves to a fair price under the rules [1]. If the match is postponed or delayed, the market stays open and closes after the rescheduled match finishes, within two weeks [1]. If a player retires, markets that can be settled unconditionally from play already completed resolve on that basis, and any others resolve to Fair Market Price as determined at the Exchange's sole discretion [1]. The event page also states that Kalshi is not affiliated with the governing league [1]. The market records list an end date of November 1, 2026 at 12:30 UTC for each of the three markets. That date is the listed market end field, not a scheduled match time or an announced event date. The event page says the market will close and expire after the event occurs [1]. The provider's observed status for the event at the time of capture was active, and the listed end time for the event was not supplied [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the difference in games won across a full tennis match between two named players, rather than who wins the match itself [1]. Each market sets a threshold, such as 1.5 or 4.5 games, and resolves to Yes only if the named player's game margin exceeds that threshold [1]. Because the three saved markets share one event but use different thresholds, a trader reading the prices needs to match each price to its own threshold and direction. The saved prices are a snapshot from the provider's observation time and are not executable quotes [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for the Michael Mmoh 1.5 game market to resolve Yes?
The market asks whether Mmoh wins at least 1.5 more games than Kumstat, and the event rules describe resolution based on the game differential in favor of Mmoh across the full match [1].
What happens if the match is postponed?
If the match is postponed or delayed, the market remains open and closes after the rescheduled match has finished, within two weeks [1].
What happens if a player retires during the match?
Markets that can be unconditionally settled based on play already completed resolve accordingly. Any markets that cannot be unconditionally settled resolve to Fair Market Price, as determined at the sole discretion of the Exchange [1].
Does the market end date show when the match will be played?
No. The listed end date of November 1, 2026 is a market field in the saved data. The event rules say the market closes after the event occurs, and the listed end time for the event was not supplied [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Lyon Open, Qualification: Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh
PM $0
Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Exact Match Score
K 0 contracts
Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Set 1 Winner
K 0 contractsJan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Set 2 Winner
K 0 contracts
Kumstat vs Mmoh
K 600.01 contracts
Jan Kumstat vs Michael Mmoh: Total Games
K 0 contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
