New Hampshire Senate District 7 winner? (2028)
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New Hampshire Senate District 7 winner? (2028)
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Republican party at 59%.
Kalshi
- Republican party59%
- Democratic party40%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Nov 6, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Senate District 7 If X wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 7, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes. X candidate listed with more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not listed on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. X candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-05T09:00:05.847Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks about the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 7. The rules state that "If X wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 7, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Party affiliation follows the label on the official ballot: "Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes" [1]. The rules also say the market "is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner" and "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
The saved snapshot contains two separate contracts. One asks whether the Republican Party wins the seat, and the other asks whether the Democratic Party wins it [1]. Each has its own Yes and No outcomes, so they should be read as two questions, not as parts of one ranked field.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-05T09:00:05.847Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-05T10:25:49.099Z [1]. These are the times for this saved record only. They do not show live prices now.
For the Republican Party contract, the saved Yes price is 0.415 and the No price is 0.585 [1]. For the Democratic Party contract, the Yes price is 0.27 and the No price is 0.73 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The market data lists an end date of 2029-11-07T15:00:00.000Z for both contracts [1]. The source's own listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. The rules describe early closure if the election result occurs, so the end date should be read as a listed field, not as a confirmed resolution date.
The sample includes both markets for this event, with no omitted markets recorded [1]. The sample warning states that the providers may not list every possible real-world outcome. Because of that, the two Yes prices should not be added together, averaged, or compared as if they described all possible winners.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why either price is where it is, and it does not show trading volume or the number of participants. Volume is not a measure of liquidity, and nothing here shows how easily a reader could trade at these prices.
The evidence also does not include recent news about the district, any candidate information, or any announced dates beyond the listed fields above. Readers should check the current provider page and the official rules before relying on this snapshot.
References
- Kalshi: New Hampshire Senate District 7 winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-05T09:00:05.847Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 5, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event asking who will win the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 7. The event is titled "New Hampshire Senate District 7 winner? (2028)" and is listed in the Elections category [1]. Its contract rules state that if a candidate X wins that election, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The event is marked eligible for accelerated determination once a designated media source declares the winner, and it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The contract ties the party question to ballot labels rather than later changes. Under the rules, a candidate's party affiliation is set by the party label listed for that candidate on the official ballot, regardless of any subsequent change [1]. If a candidate appears under more than one party label, the rules use only the first party listed. A candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is treated as affiliated with that national party [1]. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not on the official ballot, are treated as having no party [1]. A candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which they qualified [1]. The saved event includes two separate markets: one asking whether the Republican Party will win the seat and one asking whether the Democratic Party will win it [1]. Each market has Yes and No outcomes. The Republican market shows a Yes snapshot of 0.415 and a No snapshot of 0.585. The Democratic market shows a Yes snapshot of 0.27 and a No snapshot of 0.73 [1]. These are snapshots taken at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the two markets are separate contracts that should not be combined into a single field. The general election for the 2028 United States Senate is scheduled for November 7, 2028, according to Wikipedia's article on those elections [2], and the presidential election is scheduled for the same day [3]. The market's listed end date of November 7, 2029 is a date in the contract data. It is not an announced event date, and the saved event does not supply a listed end time [1].
Historical Context
The 2028 Senate elections are part of a regular cycle in which 34 of the 100 Senate seats are contested, and senators in Class 3 were last elected in 2022 [2]. Wikipedia states that these elections will run concurrently with the 2028 presidential election [2]. The New Hampshire Senate District 7 contract concerns a state legislative seat rather than a U.S. Senate seat, and the sources provided do not describe the history of that district or its prior results.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party's candidate wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 7, as determined by the party label on the official ballot [1]. Because the rules define party affiliation so specifically, the outcome for each party market depends on those ballot rules rather than on how a candidate describes their own affiliation [1]. Traders following the Republican and Democratic markets can read the saved prices as the market's observed pricing at one moment, which is useful for comparing the two contracts but not for treating either price as a confirmed forecast [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-05 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes the Yes outcome resolve?
The market resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2028 general election for New Hampshire Senate District 7 [1].
How is a candidate's party decided for these markets?
Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of later changes. Candidates with more than one party label are affiliated only with the first party listed, and independent or unlisted write-in candidates are treated as having no party [1].
When is the election scheduled?
Wikipedia states that the 2028 United States Senate elections will be held on November 7, 2028 [2], and that the 2028 presidential election is scheduled for the same date [3]. The saved Kalshi event does not supply a listed end time [1].
Do the prices show the chance that a party wins?
The prices are snapshots from a single observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They should be read as the market's pricing at that moment only.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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