California voter ID referendum passes? | PredictPedia

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

California voter ID referendum passes?

Name: California voter ID referendum passes?
End: 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z

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California voter ID referendum passes?

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California voter ID referendum passes?

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Market	Platform	Price
California voter ID referendum passes?	Poly	22%

AI Analysis

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22%

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About This Event

The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 29, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** California voter ID referendum passes?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (219 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter identification initiative proposed by Reform California or any other statewide ballot measure that establishes a voter ID requirement for voting in California elections is approved by a majority of voters

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The California voter ID initiative is a proposed statewide ballot measure for the California general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would require voters to present government-issued identification in California elections.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the voter iden"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $16.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. California voter ID referendum passes?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

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## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

218d 11h remaining

Nov 03, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

22¢

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California voter ID referendum passes?

California voter ID referendum passes?

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California voter ID referendum passes?

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Events (1)