Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks whether the Shiba Inu price will be above a threshold at 5 PM EDT on October 15, 2026. Under the rules, the market resolves to Yes if "the simple average of the 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Shiba Inu-Dollar Spot Rate, SHIBUSD_RTI, before 5 PM EDT is above X at 5 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026" [1]. The source adds that "the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, RTI" [1]. Each listed market uses a different threshold, so they are separate contracts with separate outcomes, not alternative readings of one price.

The rules say the final value is "the average of these prices" collected in the last minute before expiration [1]. A reader should therefore not treat a general exchange quote as the settlement reference.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T18:27:31.968Z [1]. These are historical snapshots from that observation time. They do not show current prices.

Within the included sample, Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The lowest included thresholds, from $0.0000025 through $0.000004 or $0.0000045 through $0.0000035 depending on the market, show Yes prices of 0.995 or 0.965. The $0.000005 threshold shows 0.92. The $0.0000055 threshold shows 0.04, and the $0.000007 threshold shows 0.035. The prices are quoted snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

The sample is partial. The provider event contains 29 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The selection ranks markets by Yes price, so omitted markets are not shown and should not be assumed to have lower or higher prices. All markets come from one Kalshi event, so no cross-platform comparison is made.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not supply a listed end time. The market records show an endDate of 2026-10-22T21:00:00.000Z, which is one week after the 5 PM EDT reference time, but the source excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. This evidence does not explain that gap, so readers should check the provider's current listing.

The evidence also does not include the final settlement value, any resolution outcome, or the reasons for the observed prices. Volume and trader counts are not supplied, and volume would not indicate liquidity in any case. Differences between contract prices do not by themselves indicate an opportunity, since each threshold has different terms.

References

1. Kalshi: Shiba Inu price on Oct 15, 2026 at 5pm EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.