Florida's 22nd District margin of victory
K 6 contracts
1
4
Florida's 22nd District margin of victory
K 6 contracts
1
4
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Askar, 2+ pts at 15.5%.
Kalshi
- Askar, 2+ pts15.5%
- Askar, 5+ pts5.5%
- Askar, 8+ pts3.7%
- Askar, 11+ pts3.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 6 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Florida's 22nd District If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 22nd District by X percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Republican Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Republican Party will be summed. If the Republican Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Republican Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Republican Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Republican Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast, for raw votes. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks whether the Democratic Party's margin of victory in Florida's 22nd District U.S. House race from the 2026 election will reach a stated threshold. The source states that the market resolves to Yes if the Democrats win "by X percentage points or more" [1]. The margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the vote percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind, with no rounding applied [1]. A tie yields a margin of 0, and a Democratic loss yields a negative margin [1].
The nine saved markets are "at least" contracts at 2, 5, 8, 11, 14, 17, 20, 23, and 26 percentage points [1]. Each is a separate yes-or-no contract, so they are not a single distribution of outcomes. The source also says the market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z, and the retrieval time is 2026-10-29T03:38:11.173Z [1]. These prices describe that saved snapshot only and may not reflect current quotes.
Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The 2 point contract is priced at 0.53, the 5 point contract at 0.29, and the 8 point contract at 0.1215 [1]. From 11 points upward, the saved Yes prices range from 0.043 down to 0.025 [1]. Because these are snapshots and not executable quotes, they should not be read as verified probabilities.
All nine markets for this event are included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The source notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The listed end date for each market is 2027-11-03T15:00:00.000Z, but the event excerpt says the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. That listed date is a close field in the market data, not an announced event date or a resolution date.
What remains uncertain
The source does not provide trading volume, trader counts, or liquidity, so the snapshot cannot show how deep any market is. The evidence also does not explain why prices sit where they do.
The retrieved rule text contains a garbled clause about summing votes for the Democratic Party, so readers should check the original provider page before relying on edge cases [1]. Contracts on this platform should not be compared with other platforms' differently worded markets without accounting for threshold, margin definition, and close timing.
References
- Kalshi: Florida's 22nd District margin of victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia contract concerns the margin of victory for the Democratic Party in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Florida's 22nd District. The rules are published by Kalshi, and they state that the market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins that election by X percentage points or more [1]. Each market in this event uses a different value of X, so the event is a set of separate yes or no contracts at different thresholds rather than a single question. The margin is calculated from vote percentages. If the Democratic Party wins, the margin is its vote percentage minus the percentage of the candidate, party, or option that finishes immediately behind it. If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is its vote percentage minus the percentage of the candidate or party that finishes first, which makes the margin negative [1]. The rules state that each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound, and that no rounding is applied to the calculated margin [1]. A tie for first place produces a margin of 0 [1]. Where the Democratic Party is the only candidate in an uncontested race, the rules set the margin at 100 percentage points, or at the total number of votes cast for raw-vote measures [1]. The election itself is scheduled. A Wikipedia article on the 2026 Florida House elections, as retrieved in this snapshot, says the elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the state's representatives, one from each congressional district, and that primary elections took place on August 18, 2026 [2]. That article describes the schedule as it read at retrieval. It does not report results, so this contract's outcome is not established by the background source.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively Democrats are expected to win Florida's 22nd District, using the margin in percentage points rather than a simple win or loss. The margin definition in the rules compares the Democratic vote share with the nearest opponent's share, so a close win and a wide win resolve differently across the threshold ladder [1]. The contract is therefore sensitive to the details of the vote count, including the rule that no rounding is applied [1]. Because the rules also state that the market closes early if certified election results are published, the timing of certification affects when the contract ends [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for a market to resolve to Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. House election in Florida's 22nd District by at least the threshold stated in that market, such as 2 or 5 percentage points [1].
How is the margin calculated?
For a Democratic win, the margin is the Democratic vote percentage minus the percentage of the candidate or party that finishes immediately behind it. The result is not rounded, and each range includes its lower bound and excludes its upper bound [1].
What happens if the Democratic Party loses?
If the Democratic Party loses, the margin is negative and is measured against the candidate or party that finishes first [1].
What is the margin if the Democrats tie for first place?
The margin is 0 in a tie for first place [1].
When does the market close?
The rules state that the market will close and expire early if certified election results are published [1]. The rules do not supply a listed end time [1]. The saved market records include an end date field of November 3, 2027, but that is a provider field, not an announced event date, and the early closure rule governs when certified results are involved [1].
When is the underlying election scheduled?
A Wikipedia article on the 2026 Florida House elections says the elections will be held on November 3, 2026 [2].
Does a price on this contract show the probability of the outcome?
No. The prices shown are snapshots of market prices at the time of observation. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Florida's 22nd District margin of victory
K 5.4K contractsFlorida's 12th District margin of victory
K 18.0K contractsFlorida's 23rd District margin of victory
K 27.9K contractsFlorida's 26th District margin of victory
K 8.3K contractsFlorida's 18th District margin of victory
K 1.6K contractsFlorida's 25th District margin of victory
K 6.9K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
