BTC price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 1pm EDT?
K 2.9K contracts
1
188
BTC price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 1pm EDT?
K 2.9K contracts
1
188
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
188
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 4:13 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 15, 2026 at 1pm EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index, BRTI, before 1 PM EDT is X Y at 1 PM EDT on Oct 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, RTI. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 1 PM EDT on October 15, 2026 falls within a stated price band [1]. The rules say the market resolves Yes if that average lands in the band, and they specify the index rather than a general exchange quote: "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same." [1] The source also states that "At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected." [1]
Each market in this sample covers a $100 band, such as "$82,500 to 82,599.99" [1]. Because the bands are adjacent slices of one event, a reader should compare them only within this event.
Timing has two separate elements. The provider observed the data at 2026-10-15T16:13:13Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:26:23Z [1]. The market records list an end date of 2026-10-22T17:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt says the listed end time is not supplied [1]. The rule's reference time is 1 PM EDT on October 15, while the listed end date is a later provider field. The evidence does not explain this difference, so readers should check the provider page before relying on either date.
Reading the snapshot
The sample includes 12 of 188 markets in this provider event [1]. Markets were selected by highest Yes price first, so the omitted bands are not shown and should not be assumed to be priced lower. The included Yes prices range from 0.03 to 0.135 [1]. The highest included price, 0.135, belongs to the $82,500 to 82,599.99 band, and the lowest, 0.03, belongs to the $83,000 to 83,099.99 band [1].
These figures are snapshot prices from the provider's observation time. They are not executable quotes, not verified probabilities, and not a current reading as of today. The evidence does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold a view.
What remains uncertain
The sample is partial, so it cannot show the full distribution of bands. The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are, and no news or historical accuracy data is supplied. Finally, the source excerpt does not report a resolution outcome, so this snapshot describes pricing before the contract settles.
References
- Kalshi: BTC price range on Oct 15, 2026 at 1pm EDT?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCOverview
This Kalshi event asks whether Bitcoin's price will fall within a specified dollar range at 1 PM EDT on October 15, 2026. Each market in the event covers a single $100 band, such as the band from $82,500 to 82,599.99, and each band has its own Yes and No contracts. The contract rules tie resolution to CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index, known as BRTI, rather than to a single exchange or general price website. The rules state that the market is based on the corresponding real-time index, and that "At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices." [1] In practical terms, the measured value is an average of 60 index readings taken in the final minute before the measurement time, not the price at one instant. The rules also describe the measurement as the simple average of sixty seconds of BRTI before 1 PM EDT [1]. The text of the threshold itself is garbled in the saved rules, so the exact band for any given market should be read from its title rather than inferred from the rule wording. The saved event record shows an end date of October 22, 2026 for each market, while the rules refer to the measurement at 1 PM EDT on October 15, 2026. A date written into contract rules is the time a contract specifies for measurement, and the saved end-date field should be read as a platform record rather than as confirmation of when settlement occurred. The record's provider status is "active" in the snapshot. The price figures shown alongside this article are snapshots from a sample of the event, not executable quotes. A price near a band's Yes value is a market-implied reading at the snapshot time, not a verified probability that the price will land in that band. Trading volume is also not a measure of liquidity or the number of participants.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the average BRTI reading over a one-minute window before 1 PM EDT on October 15, 2026 falls within a specified $100 band [1]. Because the reference is an index average rather than a quote from one venue, the contract's outcome depends on the BRTI methodology described in its rules rather than on any single exchange's displayed price [1]. Traders and readers can use the band structure to see how the market distributes probability across price ranges, but the snapshot prices only describe the market at the time they were recorded.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does this contract use to decide the outcome?
The rules say the market is based on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index, BRTI, and that the price used is the index rather than a general price check on a site such as Google or Coinbase [1].
How is the final value calculated?
The rules state that 60 RTI prices are collected at the last minute before expiration and that "The official and final value is the average of these prices" [1].
Does a Yes price mean the outcome is likely?
No. The prices are snapshots from a trading platform, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed chance that the price will fall in a given band [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
