Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks whether Ethereum moves up or down during the window named in its title, "Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET" [1]. The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules. The market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with another ether contract should check whether it uses the same feed, window, and close time.
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:45:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract closing time. The title's 4:45AM ET end corresponds to this UTC timestamp, but the listed end time is the figure to compare across contracts.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:45:22.446Z [1]. These are different moments, so the prices describe the observation time, not the time of retrieval or any later moment.
At observation, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices on one platform, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The 0.010 difference reflects only the saved prices and does not indicate how the market will resolve.
The sample contains one market from one provider event. All saved markets for that event are included, and the sample is not flagged as partial [1]. Because there is only one contract, no ranking against other markets is possible, and nothing can be inferred about outcomes that were not saved.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, the number of traders, or any explanation for price movement. It does not show the Ethereum price at the start of the window or the outcome after the listed end time. The provider status was active in the saved record [1], but the snapshot cannot show whether that status has changed since retrieval.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price direction contract on Polymarket, titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET" [1]. It asks whether Ethereum's price will rise or fall over one five-minute interval. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum over that range is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-20T08:45:00.000Z [1]. The contract is tied to a specific data feed rather than to general market prices. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink stream and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. Anyone reading a price for this contract should therefore check which feed the rules name, because a different exchange or index could show different values for the same period. The saved event lists two outcomes, Up and Down, and the provider's status for the event is active [1]. The sample on this page includes only this one market, so it does not show a wider set of contracts for the same event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the interval and a specified data stream, the result depends on those rule details rather than on a single moment's quote [1]. Traders following short-term crypto moves may use it to express a view on near-term direction, but the rules define what counts as resolution, and the prices shown on the platform are only snapshots of market pricing at the time they were recorded.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Ethereum over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time in the saved event is 2026-10-20T08:45:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
PM $0Ethereum Up or Down - October 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.