KY-05 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.5K
1
10
KY-05 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $16.5K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Republican 55-60% at 25.5%.
Polymarket
- Republican 55-60%25.5%
- Republican 45-50%22.4%
- Republican 50-55%20.3%
- Republican 30-40%8.2%
- Republican 60-65%5.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $16.5K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 KY-05 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 KY-05 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is titled "KY-05 House Election Margin of Victory." Its rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Resolution uses the official count, and the source says the market "will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official" [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a rule in the contract, not an announced event date.
The rules also state that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket" [1]. The bracket contracts are worded as "Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-05 House election by 55%-60%?" The separate contract "Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 KY-05 House election?" asks about a different question, so it should not be combined with the margin brackets.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the data was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:04:27.695Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The listed end time for all contracts is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
All ten saved markets are included in this sample, and the sample is not partial. The sample warning notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1].
The Yes prices for the nine margin brackets are 0.255 (55%-60%), 0.2025 (50%-55%), 0.186 (60%-65%), 0.1815 (45%-50%), 0.0815 (65%-70%), 0.0575 (40%-45%), 0.0445 (30%-40%), 0.0375 (0%-30%), and 0.005 (70% or more). Together they total about 1.05, so these prices should not be read as a probability distribution that sums to one. The Democratic-win contract is quoted at 0.003 Yes.
What remains uncertain
The source says the election "is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The excerpt does not establish any later developments, and this analysis does not describe news, trader agreement, or reasons for price levels. Volume is not provided in this evidence, so it cannot indicate liquidity. Differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal on their own, because the wording, brackets, and tie rules differ.
References
- Polymarket: KY-05 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event on the margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House election in Kentucky's 5th congressional district [1]. The provider's excerpt says the election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. A Wikipedia page on the 2026 Kentucky House elections says the contests will elect the state's six representatives, one from each district, on that date, and that the primary elections took place on May 19, 2026 [2]. The contract does not simply ask who wins. It measures the margin of victory, defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the options labeled "Democrat" and "Republican." Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The rules also address edge cases. If a reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the tie is resolved by ballot-listed last name in alphabetical order, with the lowest margin bracket applied to that candidate. If a listed candidate ties with an unlisted candidate, the listed candidate's lowest margin bracket applies. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background is limited to the scheduled 2026 cycle. The Wikipedia page for the 2026 Kentucky House elections notes that the contests coincide with other House, Senate, and state and local elections [2]. A separate Wikipedia entry describes the 2023 Kentucky gubernatorial election, which was held on November 7, 2023, and won by incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear. That source describes it as the only statewide victory in 2023 for Democrats in Kentucky [3]. That statewide race is not part of the 5th district contract and does not describe the district's House race.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how wide the margin is between the top two finishers in a single House race, grouped into percentage-point brackets. This makes it different from a contract that only asks which party wins. A trader's position depends on which bracket contains the official result, using the calculation and tie rules described in the contract [1]. The timing rules matter. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04 04:59 UTC for the contracts in this event [1]. That listed time is not the same as resolution. The contract says it resolves based on the official vote count once that count has been made official, and it stays open if a recount begins before certification [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The saved event includes ten markets. They cover margin brackets from 70% or more down to 0% to 30%, along with a market on whether the Democratic Party candidate wins [1]. All saved markets for this event are included in the sample, but the sample only describes what this provider event contains. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome in the real-world race.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the margin of victory measure?
It measures the absolute difference between the vote percentages of the first-place and second-place candidates, using valid votes as the denominator [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in this contract?
No. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party, and the Democrat and Republican options are tied to the nominees of those parties [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated and the market resolves based on the party's replacement nominee [1].
How are exact boundary results handled?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
What happens if the result is not known by June 30, 2027?
The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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