Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket event, "Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET" [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a spot price chart or another exchange's Solana quote should expect that difference to matter. The listed end time is "2026-10-31T18:00:00.000Z" [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should convert the window and the listed end time before comparing them.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record shows two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The saved observation time is 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-31T01:55:53.704Z [1]. The price therefore describes the market at the observation time, roughly five hours before retrieval, and should not be read as the price now.
The sample includes the only market saved for this event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because the two outcomes are the binary Up and Down contract, there is no omitted outcome in this snapshot to compare against. The saved data does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity.
This event should not be compared with other Solana contracts that have different windows, different start prices, or different resolution sources. Differences in price between such contracts do not, by themselves, indicate an opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices were at these levels at the observation time. It also does not show how the market has moved since then, what the provider status will be at close, or how the Chainlink TWAP will compare with the starting price. The saved provider status reads "active" [1], but that is the status recorded in the source, not a confirmation of current trading conditions.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T21:00:05.889Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 31, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a short-window price question on Solana, the crypto asset, against the US dollar. Its title is "Solana Up or Down - October 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET" [1]. The market is listed on Polymarket, and the source describes it as a fifteen-minute window, from 1:45PM to 2:00PM ET on October 31 [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on how the average price over the whole window compares with the starting price, not on where the price ends the window. The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD time-weighted average price data stream, which the source identifies by name and link [1]. The source states that the market concerns only this Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A price on another exchange or data feed would not decide this contract under these rules. The listed end time in the provider record is 18:00 UTC on October 31, 2026 [1]. That time marks the close of the window. It is a contract rule and does not describe any event that has been announced or confirmed beyond the contract itself.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Solana's time-weighted average price over one fifteen-minute window, compared with the price at the start of that window, using the Chainlink SOL/USD stream [1]. Because the average is taken over the window, a brief move near the end does not by itself settle the result in the way a single closing price would. The rules also tie the result to one named data stream, so the stated resolution source is the reference point for judging the outcome [1]. The recorded prices for this contract were an Up price of 0.505 and a Down price of 0.495 at the time of the provider observation [1]. These are snapshot prices from one saved record. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities of the outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Solana from Chainlink's SOL/USD stream over the 1:45PM to 2:00PM ET window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The contract names Chainlink's SOL/USD time-weighted average price data stream. The rules state that other sources or spot markets do not determine the outcome [1].
Does the listed end time mean the outcome is known?
The listed end time is 18:00 UTC on October 31, 2026 [1]. That is the close of the stated window under the contract rules. The provider record does not report how the window resolved.
Do the listed prices show the chance that Solana goes up?
The saved record shows an Up price of 0.505 and a Down price of 0.495 at the provider observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
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