NCAA Football: Texas State 2026 Win Total
PM $15.7K
1
5
NCAA Football: Texas State 2026 Win Total
PM $15.7K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4.5+ Wins at 87.5%.
Polymarket
- 4.5+ Wins87.5%
- 5.5+ Wins72.5%
- 6.5+ Wins40.5%
- 7.5+ Wins4.7%
- 8.5+ Wins2.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.7K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team's regular season win total exceeds the listed number. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Only official regular-season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count even if the NCAA recognizes them as such. Only played games resulting in a win will count toward this total. If the listed team plays fewer games than scheduled due to cancellation, weather, forfeit, or any other reason, only actual wins recorded count toward the total; canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. If the 2026 NCAA Division 1 Football regular season is cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official NCAA and conference records (https://www.ncaa.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event is "NCAA Football: Texas State 2026 Win Total" on Polymarket. Each contract asks whether Texas State will record more than a stated number of regular-season wins. The saved event includes five thresholds: more than 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5, and 8.5 wins [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own price, so they should be read individually rather than as one combined forecast.
The rules count only official regular-season games. Conference championship games, bowl games, and College Football Playoff games do not count [1]. Canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins, and the market resolves to "No" if the 2026 regular season is "cancelled, postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or it cannot be determined how many wins the listed team recorded within that timeframe" [1]. The primary resolution source is "official NCAA and conference records," although "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T03:33:16Z [1]. These prices describe that saved moment only and are not live quotes. The listed Yes prices are 0.875 for more than 4.5 wins, 0.73 for more than 5.5, 0.22 for more than 6.5, 0.12 for more than 7.5, and 0.036 for more than 8.5 [1]. Each pair of Yes and No prices sums to 1.00 in the saved data. The prices are not verified probabilities, and the saved data does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants.
The sample covers all five markets for this event, with no partial sample flag [1]. This does not show that the provider lists every possible outcome for the team, so the sample should not be treated as a complete field. The prices should not be averaged across thresholds or compared with contracts on other platforms, because their wording, thresholds, and close times may differ.
What remains uncertain
The market's listed end date is 2026-12-12T23:59:00Z, while the provider status shows a listed end time of 2026-12-27T04:59:00Z [1]. The excerpt does not explain the difference, so readers should check the contract details directly before relying on either time. The rules also refer to December 26, 2026 for the postponement cutoff, which is a rule condition and not an announced event.
The evidence does not describe the current state of the schedule, any injuries, recent results, or reasons for the prices shown. A price difference between two contracts does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity, since their rules, thresholds, and close times may not match.
References
- Polymarket: NCAA Football: Texas State 2026 Win Total. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract belongs to a series of win total markets on Texas State's 2026 college football season. The provider event contains five separate Yes or No markets, each asking whether the team will record more than a listed number of regular season wins: 4.5, 5.5, 6.5, 7.5 and 8.5 [1]. Each market is a separate contract, so a Yes outcome on one threshold does not determine the others. The resolution rules are specific. Only official regular season games count. Conference championship games, bowl games and College Football Playoff games do not count, even if the NCAA recognizes them as such [1]. Only played games that result in a win count toward the total. If the team plays fewer games than scheduled because of cancellation, weather, forfeit or another reason, only recorded wins count, and canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins [1]. The rules also address a season that is disrupted. If the 2026 NCAA Division I football regular season is canceled, or is postponed after December 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if it cannot be determined how many wins the team recorded in that timeframe, the market resolves to No [1]. The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records, although a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The provider lists an end time of December 27, 2026 at 04:59 UTC for the event, while the individual markets show an end date of December 12, 2026 at 23:59 UTC [1]. These are fields in the provider data and should not be read as a confirmed date on which the contract will settle.
Historical Context
The contract is tied to the 2026 college football calendar. The 2026 NCAA Division I FBS football season is described as the 157th season of college football in the United States and the 51st season of the highest level of competition, the Football Bowl Subdivision [3]. According to that source, the regular season began on August 29 and is scheduled to end on December 12. The postseason is scheduled to begin on December 15 and end on January 25, 2027, with the College Football Playoff National Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada. The source describes 2026 as the third season of the 12-team College Football Playoff system [3]. The schedule information describes plans and the season's background. It does not report on Texas State's results during the season.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how many regular season wins Texas State records in 2026, using only official regular season games that are actually played and won [1]. Because the thresholds are different, the set of markets gives a view of several possible outcomes for the same season. The rules are narrow. Postseason games, canceled games and unplayed games do not count as wins, which means a schedule disruption can affect the result even when the team is competitive [1]. The prices shown in the provider data are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. In the saved snapshot, the Yes prices were 0.875 for more than 4.5 wins, 0.73 for more than 5.5, 0.22 for more than 6.5, 0.12 for more than 7.5 and 0.036 for more than 8.5 [1]. Each price reflects only the market at the time of that observation. A lower price on a higher threshold does not show what the team's record will be, and comparing prices across these separate contracts does not identify an opportunity by itself.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Do bowl games or conference championship games count toward the win total?
No. The rules state that conference championship games, bowl games and College Football Playoff games do not count, even if the NCAA recognizes them as such [1].
What happens if some of Texas State's games are canceled?
Canceled or unplayed games do not count as wins. Only actual wins recorded count toward the total [1].
What happens if the regular season is canceled or postponed?
If the 2026 regular season is canceled, postponed after December 26, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, or if the number of wins cannot be determined within that timeframe, the market resolves to No [1].
Which sources decide the result?
The primary resolution source is official NCAA and conference records. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Does the price on a contract show the chance that Texas State reaches a threshold?
Prices in the provider data are snapshots and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They should not be read as confirmed chances of any outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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