5Y US Treasury yield on Nov 13, 2026?
K 273.5 contracts
1
15
5Y US Treasury yield on Nov 13, 2026?
K 273.5 contracts
1
15
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is 4.64% or above at 99.5%.
Kalshi
- 4.64% or above99.5%
- 4.62% or above99.5%
- 4.6% or above99.5%
- 4.58% or above99.5%
- 4.56% or above99.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 273.5 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
15
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 13, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
On Nov 13, 2026 If the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury is above X on Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 13, 2026, or one week following Nov 13, 2026.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks whether the par yield for the 5Y U.S. Treasury will be above a stated threshold X on Nov 13, 2026 [1]. Each included market uses a different threshold, from 4.45% to 4.73%. Under the rules, a market resolves Yes if the par yield is above its threshold on that date [1]. The market expires at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Nov 13, 2026, or one week following Nov 13, 2026 [1]. The source states that the listed end time was not supplied, yet the saved market record shows an end date of 2026-11-15T06:05:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not reconcile these, so the contract rules should govern how timing is read.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-11-12T10:22:35.592Z [1]. These figures describe that observation only and are not live quotes. Yes prices in the included sample run from 0.495 for the 4.59% threshold to 0.965 for the 4.61% threshold [1]. Several thresholds from 4.45% to 4.53% share a Yes price of 0.595 [1]. The sequence is not monotonic: 4.61% shows 0.965, 4.67% shows 0.78, and 4.71% shows 0.93 [1]. Because each threshold is a separate contract, the figures should not be read as one smooth probability curve. The evidence does not explain this pattern. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and no liquidity or trader count is supplied.
What remains uncertain
The sample is partial. Twelve of fifteen markets from this single provider event are included [1]. The included markets were ranked by Yes price and then volume, but the evidence does not give the prices of the three omitted markets, so no conclusion about them should be drawn. The evidence also contains no information on the actual yield on Nov 13, 2026, and no resolution. Price differences between thresholds do not by themselves signal an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Kalshi: 5Y US Treasury yield on Nov 13, 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-11-12T09:00:07.080Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 12, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a yes or no market on the par yield of the 5-year U.S. Treasury security on November 13, 2026. The provider's rules state that if that par yield is above a chosen threshold X on November 13, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. Each threshold in the event is a separate contract, so the same event can contain several questions about whether the yield clears a different level. A yield curve shows how yields vary with time to maturity for a set of comparable debt securities. In practice the term usually refers to a curve built from a single issuer or market segment, such as the U.S. Treasury curve for government bonds [2]. This contract sits within that framework because it tracks one point on the U.S. Treasury curve, the 5-year maturity, as reported through a par yield measure [1][2]. The market's timing rules matter for reading the contract. The provider says the market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM Eastern Time following the data release for November 13, 2026, or one week after November 13, 2026 [1]. The rules therefore tie the outcome to a specific reporting date rather than to an open-ended period. The listed contract end date in the saved data is November 15, 2026 at 06:05 UTC [1]. That date appears in the market record as the end date, while the expiry rule above is the governing description of when the contract closes. The saved market data was observed at 15:00 UTC on November 9, 2026 and retrieved shortly after, so the prices described below reflect that earlier snapshot and not live conditions. The provider lists the event as active in that snapshot [1]. Nothing in the supplied material shows how the November 13 yield actually turned out, and the prices should not be read as the outcome or as a forecast.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the 5-year U.S. Treasury par yield on a specified date sits above a given threshold [1]. Traders following interest rate expectations can use a series of thresholds to see how the market prices different yield levels around the same date. The 5-year point is one part of the broader Treasury curve, which the Wikipedia definition describes as a reference for comparing government debt across maturities [2]. The saved snapshot shows a graded pattern across the included thresholds. Yes prices were 0.93 at a 4.45% threshold, 0.79 at 4.55%, and 0.495 at 4.65%, falling to 0.425 at 4.67% [1]. These are snapshot prices, not verified probabilities or executable quotes. Because only 12 of the event's 15 markets were included in the saved sample, the figures describe only the thresholds shown and should not be taken as the complete set of levels in the event. Trading volume is not included in this sample and says nothing about liquidity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-09 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require in this contract?
A Yes outcome requires the par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury to be above the threshold X on November 13, 2026 [1]. Each individual market in the event uses its own threshold.
When does the contract expire?
The provider says the market expires at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for November 13, 2026, or one week following November 13, 2026 [1]. The saved end date of November 15, 2026 at 06:05 UTC is listed in the market record [1].
What does the 5-year yield refer to?
The contract refers to the par yield for the 5-year U.S. Treasury [1]. A yield curve relates yields to time to maturity for comparable debt, and the U.S. Treasury curve is a common example of such a curve [2].
Are the prices in this snapshot current or probabilities?
The prices are from a snapshot observed at 15:00 UTC on November 9, 2026 [1]. They are market prices at that time and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
