Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single binary contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET" [1]. The rules say it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns this feed, "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T06:10:00.000Z [1]. The title uses ET, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers comparing timing should check both.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is timestamped 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T12:54:35.225Z [1]. In that record, Up is priced at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.00 in this record, but that does not show what a buyer or seller could actually transact at.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. It is not flagged as partial, and the saved event lists one market [1]. Because this is a binary contract, Up and Down are the only two outcomes in the record. The source does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome for this topic. The record also contains no volume figures, so no statement about liquidity can be made.
What remains uncertain
The evidence describes the market only at the observation time. It does not show prices after 12:00 UTC on October 30, 2026, and the "active" status applies to that record [1]. The evidence also does not explain why the Up price sits slightly above Down. The outcome depends on the Chainlink TWAP during the stated window and on the price at the start of that window, and the supplied material does not report either value. No other platforms or contracts are included, so this snapshot cannot be compared with other markets on price alone.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T12:00:07.014Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET" [1]. The contract is in the crypto category and asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. The provider's saved record shows two outcomes, "Up" and "Down," with the event's listed end time set at 2026-10-31T06:10:00 UTC [1]. The resolution rule is tied to a specific data feed rather than to general market prices. According to the provider, the contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The provider names the resolution source as Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream and states that the contract concerns that feed alone, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The saved record was observed at 2026-10-30T12:00:07 UTC, and the provider's status at that observation was active [1]. Any price shown in this entry reflects that observation time and is not a live quote.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute window finishes at or above its starting level. Because the comparison uses an average across the window rather than a single moment, the outcome depends on how the price behaves throughout the period, not only on its endpoints [1]. The provider's rules also make the feed itself the reference point, so a reader comparing this contract with a price shown on another exchange or index should note that those sources are not the resolution basis [1]. Each outcome's price in the saved record is a snapshot of market activity at that time, and this entry does not treat it as a verified probability [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as an "Up" resolution?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range [1]. Equal values therefore count as "Up" under the stated rule [1].
Which data source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the provider states the market concerns that feed and not other sources or spot markets [1].
What time window does this contract cover?
The title specifies 2:05AM to 2:10AM ET on October 31, and the provider lists the event end time as 2026-10-31T06:10:00 UTC [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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