Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Polymarket contract, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET" [1]. The source says it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin market that uses a different source or time window is comparing different questions.
The title gives the window in ET, while the listed end time is "2026-10-20T03:15:00.000Z" [1]. These are two representations of the close time in different time zones, not two separate deadlines.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this contract at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:37:12.231Z [1]. These are past snapshot times. The evidence does not show the prices at the time of this writing, and it does not establish that the contract is still trading at these levels.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, but the evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and it contains no information about traders or trading activity.
The sample covers one market for one event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because only one contract is present, there is nothing to compare within this event, and no comparison across platforms is supported.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the actual resolution, the Bitcoin price at the start of the window, or the TWAP over the window. It also does not show the contract status after the retrieval time. The provider reported the status as active at the time of the snapshot [1].
A reader should check the live contract page and the Chainlink data stream directly before relying on any price, and should treat this record only as a description of the contract's rules and of prices observed at the stated times.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval Bitcoin contract on Polymarket titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET." The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down over a five-minute window. According to the provider's rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin across the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The price used is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, which the rules name as the resolution source [1]. The rules also say the contract tracks that specific Chainlink data stream and not other sources or spot markets [1]. The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-20T03:15:00.000Z [1]. Because the outcome depends on an averaged price over the window rather than a single price at the close, a move that ends higher can still resolve "Down" if the average over the period falls below the starting price, and the reverse can also happen [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check the exact wording of the Chainlink stream named in the rules, since the market is defined by that feed alone [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over one defined window. It is a yes or no style question about whether the averaged price at the end of the range is at or above the price at its start [1]. Because the resolution source is a single named data stream, the result is tied to that feed's calculation and not to the broader Bitcoin market as a whole [1]. The short window means the contract is designed around a very brief period of price behavior, and the stated rules define what counts as an "Up" result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the Chainlink BTC/USD time-weighted average price over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used to resolve the contract?
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream named in the provider's rules. The rules state that other sources and spot markets are not used for this contract [1].
Is the market's result based on the price at the end of the window?
No. The rules compare the time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's beginning, so the average rather than the closing price determines the outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.