Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
PM $51.44
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied record covers one Polymarket event, "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET" [1]. Its rules say the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream named in the rules, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-20T03:20:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time in the record, not a separate event announcement. The record does not establish the actual resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T08:37:06.663Z [1]. The status in that retrieved record was "active" [1]. This describes the saved record only and does not confirm the market's status at any later time.
The saved prices are 0.5 for "Up" and 0.5 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record contains no other platform for this event, so no cross-platform comparison is possible here.
The coverage data shows one market, with one included, and the sample is not partial [1]. The sample warning states that the saved markets are all included but that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because the event has only two outcomes in the record, the complete field is "Up" and "Down."
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not show trading volume, liquidity, number of participants, or any reason the prices are where they are, and this analysis does not infer them. It also does not show the TWAP values during the window or the starting price, so the outcome cannot be determined from this record.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T06:00:06.076Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket asking whether Dogecoin's price will go up or down over a specific window on October 19, 2026, from 11:15 PM to 11:20 PM Eastern Time [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the contract states that it concerns only that data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The provider's saved record lists the event's end time as 2026-10-20T03:20:00.000Z and its status as active [1]. That listed end time marks when the contract's window closes under its rules. It is not a record that the contract has resolved, and the source does not describe a resolution outcome. Because the window is measured with a TWAP rather than a single trade price, the resolution depends on the average over the period, compared with the starting reference price, rather than on where the price happens to be at the final moment [1]. The saved market data for this event contains one market with two outcomes, "Up" and "Down" [1]. The displayed prices are a snapshot from the provider's observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of the DOGE/USD price as recorded by one specified oracle data stream over one five-minute window. Its rules define the measurement in terms of Chainlink's time-weighted average price, so the outcome follows that data stream and its method rather than any other exchange or quoted price [1]. Readers comparing this contract with other Dogecoin markets should check each one's resolution source and window, since the rules attached to a different contract may differ [1]. The price of either outcome reflects a snapshot of market pricing at a point in time and does not by itself show the likelihood of an outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract compares the time-weighted average price of DOGE/USD, as generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title with the price at the beginning of that range. If the average is greater than or equal to the starting price, it resolves to "Up". Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
The stated resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the contract is about the price according to that stream and not according to any other sources or spot markets [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-20T03:20:00.000Z [1]. This is the close of the contract's stated window. The source does not report a resolution result, so the listed end time should not be read as the date the outcome was determined.
Does the displayed price tell me the chance that Dogecoin goes up?
No. The prices shown are snapshots taken from the provider's data at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.