VA-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.2K
1
8
VA-10 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $15.2K
1
8
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 25-30% at 27.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 25-30%27.5%
- Democrat 15-20%25%
- Democrat 20-25%23.5%
- Democrat 10-15%14.1%
- Democrat 30%+4.8%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $15.2K
Reported volume · provider units
8
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 VA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 VA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The event asks how large the margin of victory will be in the 2026 VA-10 House election [1]. The margin is defined as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as options, and independent candidates do not represent either party [1]. If a nominee is replaced before election day, the contract updates to the replacement [1].
Resolution uses the official count once it is certified. A value falling exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source also says the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. These are contract statements, not confirmation of the current schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T23:31:46.567Z [1]. The prices describe that observation window only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The saved sample contains eight Polymarket contracts, all included, with no partial sample flag [1]. Yes prices for the margin brackets are 0.26 for 25%-30%, 0.215 for 20%-25%, 0.21 for 15%-20%, 0.166 for 10%-15%, 0.115 for 30% or more, 0.0385 for 0%-5%, and 0.0175 for 5%-10% [1]. A separate contract asks whether the Republican candidate wins, with a Yes price of 0.0025 [1]. Each contract is priced on its own terms, so these figures should not be averaged or combined into a single distribution.
What remains uncertain
The sample does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. The saved event also does not show a separate "Other" contract, even though the rules describe that resolution path [1]. The evidence contains no price history, trading volume, or trader count, so it cannot show liquidity or how many participants hold each view. It also does not explain why prices are where they are. The supplied evidence contains no election results.
References
- Polymarket: VA-10 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "VA-10 House Election Margin of Victory." The contract family concerns the 2026 election for Virginia's 10th congressional district. According to the provider's rules, the 2026 VA-10 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The Wikipedia article on 2026 House elections in Virginia likewise states that the elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect the state's 11 U.S. representatives, one from each district, and that primary elections took place on August 4, 2026 [3]. Because the election is scheduled for a future date, the contracts describe what will happen once results are certified rather than reporting a result. The contracts do not ask who will win the seat in the abstract. They ask how large the gap will be between the top two candidates. The provider defines the margin of victory as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Each bracket market asks whether the Democratic candidate will win by a stated range, and a separate market asks whether the Republican candidate will win [1]. Independent candidates do not count as options for either party [1]. Several rules shape how a bracket resolves. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The provider also sets out tie-breaking rules for cases where two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, and says the market resolves on the official vote count once that count is made official [1]. A recount that begins before the total is official keeps the market open until the recount finishes and the vote is made official [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider names its primary resolution source as the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background is general rather than specific to Virginia's 10th district. Wikipedia describes the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections as held on November 6, 2018, as midterm elections during President Donald Trump's first term, with voters choosing representatives from all 435 congressional districts across the 50 states for the 116th Congress [2]. The supplied sources do not give a history of the VA-10 seat or prior results for it, so this entry does not describe that history.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the competitiveness of the race as the spread between the top two vote shares, not simply which party wins. Because the margin is computed from valid votes and the brackets are fixed ranges, the market separates a close contest from a lopsided one [1]. The rule that a boundary value resolves upward and the rule that certified official counts control both determine which bracket is final [1]. Readers should treat the contract as a rule set with a defined resolution process, and the outcome depends on the certified count, which has not occurred for a November 3, 2026 election as of the sources cited here [1][3].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The provider defines it as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a result falls exactly between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Which results source does the market use?
The primary source is the official results of the 2026 VA-10 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
What happens if the result is not known by June 30, 2027?
The market resolves to "Other" if the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1].
Are independent candidates counted as a party option?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party under the provider's rules [1].
What if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The contract name is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of that party [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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