FL-24 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $17.6K
1
10
FL-24 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $17.6K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 45-50% at 28.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 45-50%28.5%
- Democrat 55%+23.5%
- Democrat 50-55%23%
- Democrat 40-45%14%
- Democrat 30-35%9.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $17.6K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 FL-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contracts in this snapshot come from one Polymarket event on the FL-24 House election. Each margin contract resolves on the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the top two candidates [1]. The rules say that "candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for 'Democrat' and 'Republican,' respectively," and that independent candidates do not count as either option [1].
Several rule details affect how the prices should be read. If a reported value falls exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. Ties and recounts follow separate rules, and the rules say that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules say the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That phrase comes from the contract text and does not confirm a final schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The observation time is 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:50:31.761Z [1]. These prices describe that earlier moment and are not live quotes. The sample covers all 10 saved markets for this event (partialSample is false), but the source notes that this does not establish that every real-world outcome is listed [1].
Among the margin brackets, the highest Yes price shown is 0.255 for a Democratic win by 50% to 55%, followed by 0.185 for 55% or more and 0.155 for 40% to 45% [1]. The Republican winner contract shows Yes at 0.01 [1]. The Republican contract is a win question, not a margin bracket, so it should not be compared directly with the Democratic margin ranges.
Prices are not verified probabilities, and the sample does not show why any price was at its level. Volume is not included in this interpretation.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains only one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. The saved event does not show Republican margin brackets, so the sample cannot show how Republican margin outcomes were priced. Any price differences between these contracts reflect different wording and rules, not a comparison of equivalent outcomes.
References
- Polymarket: FL-24 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract is a Polymarket event titled FL-24 House Election Margin of Victory. It concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Florida's 24th congressional district, which the provider describes as currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. The election is still in the future relative to the saved snapshot, so the contract describes an outcome that has not yet occurred. Florida's 2026 House elections cover 28 districts, one for each congressional district in the state, and the primary elections took place on August 18, 2026 [2]. The event is organized as a set of brackets about the margin of victory between the top two candidates, plus a separate contract on whether the Republican Party candidate wins. Under the rules, the margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates, with each percentage calculated from the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the Democrat and Republican options. Independent candidates do not count as either party option [1]. The rules include several resolution mechanics. If a reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If candidates tie for the most valid votes, tiebreaks use ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order, and ties involving two or more unlisted candidates resolve to Other [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as a party nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and it resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. A recount started before the total is certified keeps the market open until the recount is complete and the vote is official [1]. The primary resolution source is the official result published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The listed end time of the event is a contract closing time, not an announced date for certification or resolution. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Historical Context
The supplied background is limited to general information about U.S. House elections. A 2018 Wikipedia summary states that the 2018 House elections were held on November 6, 2018, were midterm elections during the first term of President Donald Trump, and chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts [3]. That background does not describe the history of the 24th district or Florida's 2026 race specifically.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how large the gap will be between the two leading candidates' shares of valid votes in a single House race, rather than simply which party wins. Because the margin is based on percentages of valid votes, the official count and certification process determine the result [1]. Traders in this format are effectively taking a view on which bracket that official margin will fall into, along with a separate view on the Republican winning contract [1]. Prices shown by the application are snapshots and should not be read as executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by all valid votes cast in the election [1].
What happens if a reported margin falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
The contract resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
Do independent candidates count as options in these contracts?
No. Independent candidates do not represent options for either party, and the Democrat and Republican options refer to candidates nominated by those parties [1].
What happens if a candidate is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [1].
Does a recount affect when the market resolves?
Yes. If a recount is initiated before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
Louisiana's 5th District margin of victory
K 25.0K contractsLouisiana's 4th District margin of victory
K 8.3K contractsVirginia's 4th District margin of victory
K 12.0K contractsTennessee's 4th District margin of victory
K 11.3K contractsAlabama's 1st District margin of victory
K 12.2K contractsKentucky's 4th District margin of victory
K 8.9K contractsMarket Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
