BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single market from Polymarket on whether BNB will go up or down over a fixed 15-minute window, October 28, 4:30PM to 4:45PM ET [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over that range is "greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:45:00.000Z [1]. The listed end time is the contract's closing time. It is not a separate announcement, and the actual resolution depends on the Chainlink data for the stated window.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T21:30:17.484Z [1]. At observation, the quoted prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These prices are snapshots from that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this record, but a reader should not treat either figure as the current price.
The sample covers one market from one platform, with no partial sampling flagged [1]. Because only the "Up" and "Down" outcomes are saved, no comparison with other contracts or platforms is possible from this evidence. The small gap between the two prices is a fact about this snapshot only. It does not indicate how likely either outcome is, and it does not show any trading activity or number of participants.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the price of BNB at the start of the window, any TWAP values, or the final resolution. Whether the contract resolves to "Up" or "Down" cannot be determined from these records. The retrieved source also does not explain why the quoted prices were where they were at observation. Readers who need current prices should check the provider directly, since this record reflects only the saved observation time.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a Polymarket contract titled "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET" in the crypto category [1]. It asks whether the price of BNB over a fixed 15-minute window will finish at or above where it started. The contract is based on a time-weighted average price (TWAP), not a single spot price at the end of the window. According to the rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP across the window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of the window, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream, which the rules identify with a 60-second TWAP stream [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns only this Chainlink data stream for the BNB/USD pair, not other price feeds or spot markets [1]. This distinction matters because a BNB price shown on an exchange or aggregator may differ from the figure that settles this contract. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:45:00.000Z, and the provider reports the event as active [1]. The contract's end time is the point at which the window closes under its rules. It is not a record of when the market will settle, and it is not a statement about what BNB's price will be. The saved snapshot shows two outcomes: Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495, observed at 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z [1]. These are snapshot prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The snapshot also does not include volume figures for this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BNB/USD TWAP over the stated 15-minute window finishes at or above the price at the beginning of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, a short rise or fall near the end of the period may affect the result differently than a closing price would. The rules also limit the contract to one data source, so the outcome is defined by that feed rather than by BNB's price elsewhere [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream. The rules say the market concerns that stream for the BNB/USD pair and not other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has already settled?
No. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T20:45:00.000Z and the provider reports the event as active in the saved data [1]. The end time marks when the stated window closes under the rules; it does not show a settlement result.
What do the displayed prices indicate?
The saved snapshot lists Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495, observed at 2026-10-27T21:00:06.613Z [1]. These are point-in-time snapshot prices and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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