This contract, titled MN-02 House Election Margin of Victory, asks how far apart the two leading candidates will finish in the 2026 election for Minnesota's 2nd congressional district. The source describes the 2026 MN-02 House election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The contract does not ask who wins. It measures the gap between the top two candidates, so it resolves on a size bracket rather than a winner. Its saved market list includes brackets such as 0 to 5 percent, 5 to 10 percent, and so on up to 30 percent or more for the Democratic candidate, along with a separate market on whether the Republican candidate wins [1]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the calculation uses valid votes, the measure depends on the official count rather than on unofficial tallies or reported totals that have not been certified. For this contract, candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The rules also address boundary and tie cases. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules use ballot-listed last names in alphabetical order to choose the bracket in certain cases, and tied unlisted candidates lead to the "Other" outcome [1]. Resolution depends on the official vote count. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount finishes and the vote is certified [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time for the contract is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is when the contract closes for trading, which is distinct from the date the election is expected to occur and from the date results become official.

Historical Context

The supplied background sources cover other elections rather than the MN-02 race itself. One describes the 2024 Minnesota House of Representatives election, held November 5, 2024 to elect members to the 94th Minnesota Legislature, with primaries on August 13, 2024 [2]. Another describes the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections, held November 6, 2018, in which voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts [3]. Neither source provides results or history specific to the 2nd congressional district, so they offer only general context for how these elections are organized.

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