British Columbia general election: 2nd place
PM $12.3K · K 20.3K contracts
2
10
British Columbia general election: 2nd place
PM $12.3K · K 20.3K contracts
2
10
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $12.3K · K 20.3K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 16, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
On Oct 24, 2026 If X finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 British Columbia general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally, 1/number of tied entities, rounded down. If no listed party is tied for second and an unlisted party finishes second, every named market resolves NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution uses the final certified result from Elections BC, not the preliminary election-night count. This market will close and expire early if certified election results are published.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Both sets of markets ask which party will finish second in the October 24, 2026 British Columbia general election, but the wording differs in ways that matter. The Kalshi event asks whether a party finishes second "according to the certified results," and it ranks parties by "province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won" [1]. The Polymarket event ranks parties "primarily" by seats won, then by valid votes and alphabetically for ties [2]. A party could therefore be second on one rule and not on the other.
The contracts also differ on unusual outcomes. Kalshi states that if an unlisted party finishes second, "every named market resolves NO," and that exact ties resolve proportionally [1]. Polymarket instead states that if the results "are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 'Other'" [2].
Reading the snapshot
The saved Kalshi and Polymarket data were observed at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the source excerpts were retrieved at 2026-10-16T02:18:08.636Z [1][2]. These are snapshots, not live or executable quotes, and they should not be read as current probabilities.
Within each platform, the NDP and Conservative contracts carry the largest Yes prices. On Kalshi, the NDP Yes price is 0.695 and the Conservative Yes price is 0.225 [1]. On Polymarket, the NDP Yes price is 0.735 and the Conservative Yes price is 0.22 [2]. The minor-party contracts for OneBC, CentreBC and the Greens are each at or below 0.005 on both platforms. Each platform's five markets are fully included in the sample, with no partial sampling flagged [1][2].
The two platforms' prices should not be averaged or combined into a single figure, because their rules differ. A gap between the NDP prices on the two platforms also does not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity, since the contracts resolve under different terms and timelines. Volume figures were not supplied, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity.
What remains uncertain
The listed close times differ. Kalshi's market end date is 2027-10-24T14:00:00Z, and its excerpt states that the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. Polymarket lists an end time of 2026-10-24T23:59:00Z [2]. Kalshi also states that its market "will close and expire early if certified election results are published" [1]. The evidence does not establish when certified results will be published.
The sources do not report any election results. The saved sample also does not establish that the providers list every possible outcome in the real-world field.
References
- Kalshi: British Columbia general election: 2nd place. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
- Polymarket: British Columbia General Election: 2nd Place. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 16, 2026 UTCOverview
These are prediction market contracts on which party will finish second in the 2026 British Columbia general election. Two providers list the same question with different rules. Kalshi's event asks whether a named party finishes second in the province-wide certified valid-vote count, not in seats won, and it resolves from the final certified result published by Elections BC rather than the preliminary election-night count [1]. Polymarket's event ranks parties by the number of seats won in the Legislative Assembly and breaks seat ties first by total valid votes and then by alphabetical order of party names [2]. The two contracts can therefore resolve differently if a party's seat rank and vote rank diverge. The Polymarket rules state that the general election is scheduled for October 24, 2026, to elect the 93 members of the Legislative Assembly [2]. The Kalshi rules use the same election date [1]. Polymarket says that if the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, its market resolves to "Other" [2]. The Kalshi excerpt says its market will close and expire early if certified results are published [1]. The saved event data includes five named outcomes on each platform: BC NDP, BC Conservatives, CentreBC, OneBC and BC Greens [1][2]. Each platform's sample covers all five saved markets for its event, and the sample notes state that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1][2]. Prices in these records are snapshots of Yes and No values at the observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Trading volume is not included in the saved records, so it cannot be used to judge liquidity or how many people are trading. The contract rules also differ on timing. The Kalshi market records list an end date in 2027, while the Kalshi rules refer to October 24, 2026 [1]. The Polymarket record lists an end time of October 24, 2026 at 23:59 UTC [2]. A date in the contract rules describes when the contract is set to close, not when a result is known or announced.
Historical Context
The 2017 British Columbia general election was held on May 9, 2017, to elect 87 members to the Legislative Assembly for the 41st Parliament [4]. Before that election, the Liberal Party governed under Christy Clark, the NDP formed the Official Opposition under Adrian Dix and then John Horgan, and the Greens held a sole seat under Andrew Weaver [4]. The 2024 British Columbia general election was held on October 19, 2024, to elect 93 members for the 43rd Parliament [3]. The current contracts concern the next general election scheduled for October 24, 2026, which would elect 93 members [2]. The provided sources describe these past elections but do not describe the 2026 campaign or its current standing.
Why It Matters
The contracts measure which party finishes second in the 2026 election under each provider's counting rule. On Kalshi, the measure is the province-wide certified valid-vote count, so seats are not the deciding factor [1]. On Polymarket, the measure is the number of seats won, with votes used only to break ties [2]. This difference matters because a party that finishes second in votes could finish differently in seats, depending on how the vote is distributed. The Kalshi rules also say that if no listed party is tied for second and an unlisted party finishes second, every named market resolves No [1]. Polymarket resolves to Other if results are not definitively known by its stated deadline [2]. The saved prices show how each platform valued these outcomes at the observation time, but they do not show the result of the election.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-16 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Which result does each contract use?
The Kalshi contract uses the province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won, and it uses the final certified result from Elections BC rather than the preliminary count on election night [1]. The Polymarket contract ranks parties by seats won and uses valid votes only to break seat ties [2].
What happens if two parties are tied?
On Kalshi, exact ties for second place are resolved proportionally, with each tied entity receiving 1 divided by the number of tied entities, rounded down [1]. On Polymarket, seat ties are broken first by total valid votes and then by alphabetical order of the party names [2].
What happens if the result is not known by the deadline?
Polymarket states that if the specified election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to Other [2]. The Kalshi rules state that the market will close and expire early if certified results are published [1].
Do the prices show the likely outcome?
The saved prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1][2]. The records do not include trading volume, so they cannot show liquidity or the number of traders.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
