Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket market titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The reference is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-22T11:50:00.000Z [1]. The provider's observation time is 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T07:33:24.189Z [1]. The observation came before the stated time range began, so it reflects the market before the window opened. It is not a reading taken during or after the window, and this report does not describe it as current.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot lists two outcomes: "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are prices in a stored snapshot. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The sample includes one market, the full set of saved markets for this event, with no partial sampling [1]. Because only this event is included, no comparison with other platforms or other events is possible from this evidence.
The gap between the two prices is small. Reading the numbers alone, the snapshot leaned slightly toward "Up" at the observation time, but the evidence does not explain why the prices were set at those levels. Volume and the number of participants are not included, so the prices cannot be read as a measure of liquidity or agreement.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the TWAP values for the 7:45 to 7:50 AM ET window, so the final result cannot be determined from these materials. The saved snapshot also predates the window, so later prices are unknown. The provider lists the status as "active," but that status applies to the record at its retrieval time [1].
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket that asks whether the HYPE/USD price, measured as a time-weighted average price (TWAP), will be higher or lower over a five-minute window. The contract is titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET" [1]. Under its rules, it resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise [1]. The resolution source is named as Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, identified as hype-usd-twap-60s-streams [1]. The rules say the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. This means the outcome depends on that specific feed, so a price shown on a different exchange or data service would not decide the contract. The listed end time is 2026-10-22T11:50:00.000Z [1]. The saved provider record is dated to an observation at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, so it reflects the market as recorded at that time rather than a live view. The contract's listed end time is a rule of the contract and does not establish when the market actually resolved. The saved record lists both outcomes, Up and Down, and the market has two outcomes only [1]. A price for each outcome is a snapshot of a market observation. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability that either outcome will occur.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP over a specific five-minute window finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because it uses an average over the window rather than a single moment, the result reflects the average price during the period compared with the opening level. The contract is explicitly limited to the Chainlink data stream, so it does not measure the broader HYPE market or prices on individual exchanges [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve Up?
It resolves Up if the TWAP of HYPE/USD from Chainlink over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source decides the outcome?
The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-22T11:50:00.000Z [1].
Do the prices on this contract show the true chance of each outcome?
No. The saved prices are snapshots from a provider record and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.