Silver Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
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Silver Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Silver price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XAG/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xag-usd-forexprice-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XAG/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract in the Finance category, titled "Silver Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET" [1]. The rule states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the Silver price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. Under this wording, a tie at the start and end of the window resolves to Up.
Resolution uses the Chainlink XAG/USD data stream, and the source specifies that the market "is about the price according to Chainlink data stream XAG/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T04:45:00.000Z [1]. The title labels the window end as 12:45AM ET, so readers should check that the listed time and the title's time zone describe the same moment. Contracts with different data sources, window lengths, or comparison rules measure different things and should not be compared directly.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-27T07:07:18.019Z [1]. This describes a past snapshot, not a live reading. The saved prices are Up 0.5 and Down 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market from one platform. The coverage record reports one total market, one included, and partialSample set to false [1]. The provider status was active at observation [1]. The source's sample note says the saved markets do not establish that providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. For this binary pair, both saved outcomes are shown. The evidence includes no volume or trader count, so it does not show depth, liquidity, or how many participants hold either view.
Equal prices in a snapshot show only that the two saved quotes matched at that moment. The evidence does not explain why.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the silver price at the start or end of the window, any price movement after the observation, or a resolution outcome. Observation time, retrieval time, the listed close, and actual resolution are separate points, and the snapshot alone does not show which outcome occurred. Readers should check the resolution source and rule text directly before relying on the contract's outcome.
References
- Polymarket: Silver Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary market on Polymarket titled "Silver Up or Down - October 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the price of silver will be higher at the end of a fifteen-minute window than at its start. The market resolves to "Up" if the silver price at the end of the time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's XAG/USD data stream, which the provider links in its rules [1]. The rules state that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink data stream, not prices from other sources or spot markets [1]. The contract therefore depends on one specific data feed, and a silver price quoted elsewhere would not decide the outcome. The provider lists the market's end time as 2026-10-28T04:45:00.000Z [1]. That corresponds to 12:45 AM Eastern Time on October 28, which matches the end of the window in the title [1]. The stored record shows the market with a status of active at the time it was observed [1]. The observation was made at 06:00 UTC on October 27, 2026, so any price or status described here reflects that earlier snapshot rather than conditions at the time of reading. In the saved snapshot, the Up and Down outcomes were each listed at 0.5 [1]. A snapshot price is a single saved observation. It is not an executable quote, and it is not a verified probability that silver will rise.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of one short silver price move, judged by a single named data feed. Because the window is only fifteen minutes long, the result depends on whether the Chainlink XAG/USD reading at the end is at or above the reading at the start [1]. Traders following the market are therefore watching a specific measurement method rather than a general view of the silver market. Anyone using the price as information should keep in mind that the rules name Chainlink's data stream as the reference, not any other silver price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price does this market use to decide the outcome?
The market uses the Chainlink XAG/USD data stream as its resolution source [1]. The provider states that it is about the price in that data stream and not about other sources or spot markets [1].
What happens if the silver price ends at the same level it started?
The rules say the market resolves to "Up" if the end price is greater than or equal to the start price [1]. A tie at the same level therefore resolves to "Up" under these rules [1].
What time period does the contract cover?
The title specifies a window from 12:30 AM to 12:45 AM Eastern Time on October 28 [1]. The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-28T04:45:00.000Z [1].
Does a listed price tell me the chance that silver will rise?
No. The stored outcome prices are snapshots taken at a past observation time, and they are not verified probabilities or executable quotes [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.