Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers a single five-minute window, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET," listed on Polymarket [1]. According to the provider excerpt, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].
The rules name a specific data source. The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the provider states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should not assume that a spot exchange price or a different oracle would produce the same outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation was taken at 2026-10-26T18:00:06Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-26T18:34:55Z [1]. The observation is a historical record, so it should not be read as a live price at the time of reading. The listed end time is 2026-10-26T23:45:00Z, and the provider status at retrieval was "active" [1].
The saved prices were "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between the two is small, but the sample does not explain why the prices were where they were, and nothing in the evidence describes trading activity or the number of participants.
The sample contains one market from one provider event. Coverage records show that all saved markets for this event are included, with no partial sampling [1]. Because there is only one contract, there is no comparison to other platforms or other windows in this evidence, and the prices should not be combined with those of differently worded contracts.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or any trade-level detail, so it cannot indicate how easily a position could be entered or exited. The sample also does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window, though the outcomes here are the two binary results defined by the rules [1].
Finally, the evidence does not show how the Chainlink TWAP will compare to the starting price in this window. Readers should check the listed end time and the resolution source directly before relying on any reading of the contract.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Bitcoin price contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET." The contract asks whether Bitcoin's price over a five-minute window will end at or above where the window started. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The contract uses a specific data source rather than general market prices. According to the listing, the resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The listing states that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BTC/USD pair, and not any other sources or spot markets [1]. This means the result depends on that feed's calculation, not on the price shown on any particular exchange. The saved listing shows two outcomes, "Up" and "Down." The stored snapshot was observed at 2026-10-26T18:00:06.173Z, with a retrieved time of 2026-10-26T18:34:55.490Z. At that observation, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These figures record a point in time and are not a live quote. The listing's end time is 2026-10-26T23:45:00.000Z, and its status was recorded as active [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one short window, as calculated by a specific data feed. Because the outcome is set by comparing a time-weighted average over the window with the starting price, the result can differ from a comparison of the simple price at the start and end of the window. The rule specifies that the calculation uses the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP stream and no other source [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check that feed, since it defines the outcome. The displayed prices show how the listing was priced at the observed time, and they are snapshots rather than executable quotes or verified probabilities.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" result mean for this contract?
The market resolves to "Up" if the TWAP of Bitcoin over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which price source determines the result?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream. The listing says the market is about that data stream and not about any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does this contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T23:45:00.000Z, and the title describes the window as 7:40PM to 7:45PM ET [1].
Do the prices shown mean the chance that Bitcoin goes up?
No. The displayed prices are snapshots from the observed time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The listing itself defines the outcome only through the Chainlink TWAP rule [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.