South Carolina House District 22 winner? (2028)
K 200 contracts
1
2
South Carolina House District 22 winner? (2028)
K 200 contracts
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Republican party at 73.5%.
Kalshi
- Republican party73.5%
- Democratic party24.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 200 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
House District 22 If X wins the 2028 general election for South Carolina House District 22, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes. X candidate listed with more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not listed on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. X candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-08T12:00:06.174Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks who will win the 2028 general election for South Carolina House District 22, and it includes two separate Yes or No contracts [1]. The first asks whether the Republican Party will win, and the second asks whether the Democratic Party will win [1]. Under the rules, "If X wins the 2028 general election for South Carolina House District 22, then the market resolves to Yes" [1].
Party affiliation follows the ballot. It is "determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes" [1]. A candidate listed under more than one party is affiliated only with the first party listed, and independent or unlisted write-in candidates are affiliated with no party [1]. The market may also close early, since it "will close and expire early if the event occurs" and is "eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-11-08T12:00:06.174Z and retrieved at 2026-11-08T14:15:13.080Z [1]. These are historical capture times, not live readings, and the prices below describe only that saved moment.
The Republican contract showed Yes at 0.74 and No at 0.26 [1]. The Democratic contract showed Yes at 0.25 and No at 0.75 [1]. Each pair is a single contract's two sides, so the Yes and No prices sum to 1.00 within each contract. The two party contracts should not be averaged or combined into one estimate, and their separate prices do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity. Each price is a snapshot, not an executable quote.
The sample includes both markets from this one event, with no omitted markets according to the coverage record [1]. This does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed.
What remains uncertain
The market records show an end date of 2029-11-07T15:00:00.000Z, but the source excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The records therefore do not settle the listed close time, and the early-close rule means actual closing depends on the event. The evidence also does not include volume, trader counts, or the reasons behind the quoted prices, so those questions cannot be answered from this snapshot. Readers should check the current contract page before relying on any price.
References
- Kalshi: South Carolina House District 22 winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-08T12:00:06.174Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 8, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event asking who will win the 2028 general election for South Carolina House District 22 [1]. The event is split into two party-specific contracts: one asks whether the Republican Party will win the seat, and the other asks the same about the Democratic Party [1]. Each contract is a yes or no question, and its settlement depends on the rules in the provider's contract text rather than on the broader national race. The main rule is that a contract resolves to Yes if the named candidate wins the 2028 general election for the district [1]. For party contracts, the provider does not assign a party based on informal labels. Instead, party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, and that label is fixed even if the candidate later changes parties [1]. If a candidate appears on the ballot with more than one party's label, the candidate is affiliated only with the first party listed. A candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is treated as affiliated with that national party [1]. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates who are not listed on the official ballot, are treated as having no party [1]. A candidate who is declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified [1]. The contract also includes an accelerated settlement provision. It is eligible for early determination once a designated media source declares the winner, and the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The provider record does not supply a listed end time for the event [1]. The market data does carry an end date of November 7, 2029, but that is a contract field and should not be read as an announced date for the election or for resolution [1]. The saved snapshot shows two active contracts with the following prices: the Republican Party Yes contract at 0.74 and the Democratic Party Yes contract at 0.25 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because the two contracts are separate, their prices do not need to sum to a fixed value, and a difference between them is not by itself an opportunity to trade. The sample includes every saved market for this event, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome.
Why It Matters
The contract measures which party's label will be attached to the winner of one state House seat in the 2028 general election [1]. Because the rules tie party to the ballot label rather than to a candidate's later choices, the contract's outcome depends on how the candidate appears on the official ballot, not on how the candidate describes their affiliation afterward [1]. The rules also address edge cases such as multiple party labels, unaffiliated or unlisted write-in candidates, and uncontested seats [1]. Anyone reading the prices should keep in mind that they are point-in-time snapshots for two separate contracts [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-08 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What event must happen for a party contract to resolve to Yes?
The contract resolves to Yes if a candidate affiliated with the named party wins the 2028 general election for South Carolina House District 22 [1].
How is a candidate's party determined?
Party affiliation follows the party label listed on the official ballot, and the label stays fixed even if the candidate later changes parties [1].
What happens if a candidate has more than one party label on the ballot?
The candidate is affiliated only with the first party listed on the ballot [1].
Does the market close early?
The market will close and expire early if the event occurs, and it is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner [1].
Do the prices show the likelihood of each party winning?
The prices are snapshots from the saved provider data and are not verified probabilities or executable quotes [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
