Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 28?
PM $287.33
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Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 28?
PM $287.33
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $287.33
Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 28, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on October 28, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on October 28, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Silver (XAGUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Silver (XAGUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET) on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET), the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAG%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract asking whether Silver (XAGUSD) will close "Up" or "Down" on October 28, 2026 [1]. The source says it resolves to "Up" if the close on October 28 is higher than the close on the most recent prior trading day, and to "Down" if it is lower [1].
The wording includes several rules that affect how the contract settles. If the two closes are exactly equal, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. The same applies if Silver does not trade during the relevant session, or if the listed date is not a trading day under the applicable schedule on Pyth [1]. Closing prices are taken from the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, which closes at 5:00 PM ET, and are used without rounding [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-28T21:00:00.000Z [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T02:43:12.099Z [1]. The prices below describe that observation, not live trading at the time you read this.
The saved market shows "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The equal prices reflect only what was saved at that moment. The sample includes the one saved market for this event, and the coverage record marks it as complete (one market, one included, no partial sample) [1]. The record does not report volume or trader counts, so no statement about liquidity or participation is supported.
Because this is a single binary contract, no comparison across outcomes or platforms is made here. A different contract with a different close time or wording should not be treated as equivalent.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are equal, and it does not say whether they have changed since the observation. The status was recorded as active at retrieval [1], but the evidence contains nothing after that point. The actual close, the Pyth values, and the resolution are not in the supplied material. Readers should check the resolution source and the listed rules directly before relying on how this contract settles.
References
- Polymarket: Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 28?. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T00:00:06.241Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 28, 2026 UTCOverview
This market asks whether the price of silver, quoted as XAGUSD, will close higher or lower on October 28, 2026 than on the most recent prior trading day [1]. It has two outcomes, Up and Down. Up resolves if the October 28 close is higher than the prior close, and Down resolves if it is lower [1]. The rules define each close precisely. For every trading day, the closing price is the Pyth Close value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, which covers the minute ending at 5:00 PM ET [1]. Prices are used as published by Pyth, without rounding [1]. If the two closing prices are exactly equal, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. Trading days follow a schedule listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading runs from 6:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00 PM to 6:00 PM ET, subject to holiday or special-session hours [1]. The rules give a worked example: a Monday market normally compares against the previous Friday, but if Friday was not a trading day, the comparison uses the next most recent prior trading day [1]. If the target date is not a trading day, or if silver does not trade during the relevant session, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. The rules also set fallbacks for data problems. If a relevant day has no valid 1-minute close, the last valid Pyth price before 4:59 PM ET during that session serves as the closing price [1]. If a system outage or data failure leaves no valid Pyth price for a day, the official daily close of the CME COMEX Silver Futures (SI) contract for that day may be used instead [1]. If a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affects the market, it resolves on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of silver's closing price over one specified trading day, not the price level itself [1]. Because the comparison is between two consecutive closes, a move that leaves the close unchanged resolves 50-50 rather than Up or Down [1]. The provider listing gives an end time of 2026-10-28T21:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the listed end time in the rules, and the rules define the reference close as the 4:59 PM ET candle, so the two should be read together with the Pyth schedule rather than as a standalone resolution moment [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-28 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as Up?
Up resolves if the Pyth closing price for October 28, 2026 is higher than the Pyth closing price on the most recent prior trading day [1].
What happens if the two closing prices are equal?
The market resolves 50-50 if the two specified closing prices are exactly equal [1].
Which price data is used?
The rules use Pyth Close values from the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, as published by Pyth without rounding [1]. The CME COMEX Silver Futures daily close is a fallback only when no valid Pyth price exists for a day because of a technical disruption [1].
What if silver does not trade on the relevant day?
If silver does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, or if a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable schedule, the market resolves 50-50 [1].
How is the prior trading day chosen?
The prior trading day is the most recent prior day that is a trading day under the applicable schedule. The rules give the example that a Monday market normally refers to the previous Friday, unless Friday was not a trading day [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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