GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

Name: Arizona Governor Election: Turnout
End: 2026-11-03T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$3.92K

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Arizona Governor Election: Turnout

Vol

$3.92K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $3.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $3.92K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

10 markets tracked

Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,450,000 and 2,600,000?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,450,000 and 2,600,000?	Poly	32%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?	Poly	24%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,900,000 and 3,050,000?	Poly	14%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be less than 2,000,000?	Poly	14%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,600,000 and 2,750,000?	Poly	9%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 3,050,000 and 3,200,000?	Poly	9%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,300,000 and 2,450,000?	Poly	5%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,150,000 and 2,300,000?	Poly	3%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be 3,200,000 or more?	Poly	2%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,000,000 and 2,150,000?	Poly	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

32%

Top Probability

$3.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are include

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Arizona Governor Election: Turnout
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 3, 2026 (59 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are include

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not def"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $3.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $47.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.08)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be less than 2,000,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 14.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,000,000 and 2,150,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.9% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,150,000 and 2,300,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,300,000 and 2,450,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,450,000 and 2,600,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,600,000 and 2,750,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $78
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,750,000 and 2,900,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $962
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 2,900,000 and 3,050,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $104
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be between 3,050,000 and 3,200,000?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $30
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona be 3,200,000 or more?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 3, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics