Snapshot observed 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The source describes an Air Force vs Army college football spread market for a game "originally scheduled for Nov 7, 2026" [1]. Each listed contract asks whether a margin threshold is cleared. The rule text states: "If Army wins by more than X points in the Air Force vs Army college football game originally scheduled for Nov 7, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Air Force thresholds work the same way in reverse. Contracts at different thresholds are separate questions, so they should not be read as one outcome distribution.

The rules also cover postponement: "If the game is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result." If the game does not start within 48 hours, the source says the market "will resolve to a fair price" [1]. The rules describe these conditions but do not say whether the game has been postponed.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observation time is 2026-11-02 12:00:05 UTC. The source was retrieved at 12:16:58 UTC on the same day [1]. These are snapshot times, not live quotes. Each price is a Yes price from that observation.

In this sample, Army over 1.5 points is quoted at 0.585 Yes, Army over 2.5 at 0.565, and Army over 3.5 at 0.475. Air Force over 1.5 is quoted at 0.375 and Air Force over 2.5 at 0.36. Army over 10.5 is quoted at 0.275, the lowest Yes price shown. Each price reflects only the contract it belongs to.

These figures are not verified probabilities and not executable quotes. Volume and trader counts are not supplied, so they cannot indicate liquidity or agreement.

What remains uncertain

The sample is partial. The coverage record shows 12 of 29 markets included for this provider event [1]. The selection rule ranks markets by Yes price, so the omitted 17 are not shown, and their prices should not be inferred from the included set.

The end time is also unclear. Each market record lists an end date of 2026-11-10 00:30 UTC, but the source excerpt says "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The record and the excerpt disagree, and the sample does not explain the difference. The excerpt also says the market "will close and expire after the event occurs" [1]. Because the source does not establish the game's actual status, the snapshot cannot show how the market will resolve. Comparisons with other platforms would need matching thresholds and rules before any conclusion about price differences.

References

1. Kalshi: Air Force vs Army: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-11-02T12:00:05.871Z.