Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHISports

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

Total Volume

$56.89

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FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

Vol

$56.89

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $56.89

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $56.89

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

20 markets tracked

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(20)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	97%
Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	96%
Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	95%
Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	92%
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	60%
Will Wesley So be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	15%
Will Wei Yi be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Viswanathan Anand be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Le Quang Liem be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Leinier Domínguez Pérez be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Liren Ding be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jorden Van Foreest be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Hans Moke Niemann be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Gukesh Dommaraju be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Anish Giri be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Alireza Firouzja be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Arjun Erigaisi be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$56.89

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Top 5 - December 2026 If X is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players, top 100 players, Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebreaking methodology is as follows: Number of rated games played - The player who has played more rated games in the rating period is ranked higher Date of birth - If the number of games is also equal, the younger

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Top 5 - December 2026

If X is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players, top 100 players, Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebreaking methodology is as follows: Number of rated games played - The player who has played more rated games in the rating period is ranked higher Date of birth - If the number of games is also equal, the younger 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Wesley So is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebreaking met"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $57
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wesley So be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Wei Yi be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Vincent Keymer be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Viswanathan Anand be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 40.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Le Quang Liem be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Leinier Domínguez Pérez be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Liren Ding be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Jorden Van Foreest be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Hans Moke Niemann be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Gukesh Dommaraju be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Anish Giri be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $47
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Alireza Firouzja be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Arjun Erigaisi be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 7, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHISports

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

Volume$56.89

Markets20

20 of 20

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KALSHI

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

If Magnus Carlsen is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebreakin

KALSHI

Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 95.5¢No 4.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

If Hikaru Nakamura is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebreaki

KALSHI

Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

If Javokhir Sindarov is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebrea

KALSHI

Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 92.0¢No 8.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

If Fabiano Caruana is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tiebreaki

KALSHI

Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

If Nodirbek Abdusattorov is rated top 5 on the December 2026 FIDE World Top Players (top 100 players) Standard Rating List, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: According to FIDE regulations, when players have equal Elo ratings on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List, the tie

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27¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/lA0Ve0" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026"></iframe>

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FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

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Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

Markets (20)

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

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Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

FIDE World Top Chess Players: Top 5 Rated in December 2026

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Magnus Carlsen be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Hikaru Nakamura be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Javokhir Sindarov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Fabiano Caruana be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov be rated top 5 on the FIDE World Top Players Standard Rating List in December 2026?

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